Feb 17, 2018
Trump must return to KingDollar to sustain prosperity and march to re-election. @Moore, Steve @James Pethokoukis@Elizabeth Peek Will infrastructure be a boondoggle or serious growth measure? Fed gov't? Public/Private? Is there an inflation threat? @Lavorgna Joseph @Lavorgnanomics. Capgoods boom? More potential to grow? @davidbahnson: " A Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It." Sen Bill Cassidy: Rising GOP mid-term outlook w/ tax cut popularity & growth/jobs/wages. Russian Indictments? No Trump collusion? Infrastructure. Sen David Perdue: Is Trump budget really so bad? Reform entitlements? Workfare? Deficits & Debt? Budget reform? Immigration gonna make it? Stock market comes back strong. Have rates peaked? Correction over? Inflation fears? Deficits & debt worries? Bitcoin update?
Feb 10, 2018
Is GOP still party of spending restraint? Is Tea Party over? 2-year budget deal eliminates spending caps & sequester. Special tax breaks ? Entitlements? Medicaid? OB-Care? Rules? 20%/GDP ? Cong Mark Meadows, chair of Freedom Caucus Is economy fundamentally sound? So stocks still good buy at lower prices? War on Rich won't help the poor: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-war-on-the-rich-wont-help-the-poor-1518134282?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 It's real interest rates from stronger economy that led to 10% stock correction. Vix derivatives? Profits still mother's milk of economy? When to buy? https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-slump-continues-1518138066 The post-war Marshall plan helped save West European democracies from Communism. Will Trump America First weaken alliance? https://www.wsj.com/articles/review-when-the-marshall-plan-helped-plot-a-new-course-for-the-west-1518212300 https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-china-impose-a-new-world-order-1518219178 Seton Hall speech on JFK & the Reagan Revolution-----Kudlow & Domitrovic Is White House again splintering into disorder? Kelly-Porter-Thornton-Cohn-Mulvaney American Spies gave $100K to Russian to get dirt on Trump!!!!
Feb 3, 2018
Whole Russian investigation a scam based on phony dossier from Clinton payroll. Give Mueller 3 months to rap it all up. There's no there there. 600 point stock drop from higher real & market rates and stronger economy. Correction a good thing. Buy the dip. Don't forget excellent Davos & SOTU speeches. America open for biz. Free, fair & reciprocal trade; no NAFTA pullout. Appeal to Dems cooperation. Euro social justice ceos may hate Trump, but now they're behind his policies cause he's making so much money for them. Do Dems really want immigration reform? Doubtful. Budget shutdown. Debt limit. Infrastructure? Strong jobs report. Wages rising. Econ shifting into high gear. Supply-side impact from tax rate reduction. More people working do not cause inflation. Gold falling. Mid-term election looks much closer w/ rising econ, end of Russian nonsense, Trump wanting immigration deal. What do Dems represent besides Trump hating.
Jan 27, 2018
America First Triumphs in Davos. Open for business. Going to Davos a brilliant strategy. But America First does not mean America Alone. Trump accommodating NAFTA & TPP? Reciprocity. Dollar will get stronger & stronger. Increasingly prominent Sen David Perdue standing w/ Trump on immigration. Tax reform investment boom. SOTU preview. Stocks still on a tear. New records. Dollar? Gold? Oil? Strong investment. Profits. Fed rate hike? Did Trump really want to fire Mueller? Should he? Should he appear under oath before Mueller? What's this classified document w/ Clinton operatives & phony dossier & FISA? Will secular stagnationists Larry Summers and Jason Furman eat crow. A new more flexible Trump on trade, immigration? Policy power of Gen Kelly?
Jan 20, 2018
Trump tax cuts & regulatory rollback are transforming econ. Private sector biz leading charge. Apple & WalMart key decisions. Capex, wages, jobs & growth. How to make immigration work: Prof Ed Lazear of Stanford- Hoover. Interest rate induced correction in stock market? Why is dollar weak? Dems would rather have gov't shutdown than help Dreamers w/ full reform of immigration. Want to raise worker wages? Cut corp tax.
Jan 13, 2018
Immigration puzzle. Trump swears, but so what? Many presidents do. Not racism, but frustration . Durbin wants visa lottery, Trump doesn't. Terrorist killed 8 and injured 8 in NYC from Visa Lottery. Trump wants merit program, not equal diversity. DACA must be accompanied by wall/barrier/drones/policing/window. $18b. Merit, not family chain. Can there be bi-partisan deal? Dems rather talk about racism than immigration. Ryan: " Very unhelpful...very unfortunate." Remarkable stock market continues. Wall St raising growth & profit forecasts. Higher real rates & correction? 3% RGDP, 15% profits, big capex, stronger consumer. Wall St analysts crediting Trump. Dudley & Kaplan fear overheating. Demand-siders. Dudley never understood supply-side incentives to raise econ potential to grow. Where's inflation? Watch gold, dollar, Breakevens, TIPS. Energy push temporary. Mainstream media wrong: corps already paying higher wages. Much more to come from investment boom.3 straight 3% growth quarters first time since Bush tax cuts 2005\. WalMart big wage hike. Toyota plant in Alabama. Davos good idea for Trump. World central stage to promote econ growth. Tax & regulatory rollback. Infrastructure. Immigration. Foreign policy triumphs. Along w/ 55 minute immigration meeting in Cabinet Room, shows world how capable he is. Like Reagan G-7 in 1981-83\. Bannon & Wolff wrong. Medicaid work requirements completely right. New IRS w/holding schedules, w/ brackets & marginal rates. States want charitable deductions to replace SALT deduction. Legal? Municipality v. state? Why not just cut state taxes? Lower taxes reduce deficits, not raise them. Trump on NAFTA. Rather negotiate, but will pull out. Bad for biz & market. $71b trade gap w/ Mexico. $17n w/ Canada. So what?
Jan 6, 2018
Bannon belly-up, stocks soar. His brand of populism is anti-growth. Trump decision to cut ties w/ Bannon a great decision. Good for Trump, economy, international relations. Bannon out at Breitbart? Political meaning of rift? Bannon PAC is dead. Will Dems back Bannon to attack Trump? Michael Wolff? Camp David meeting to determine 2018 agenda. Welfare reform, infrastructure, budget, immigration. Where's Steven Mnuchin? Cohn stays? $18b wall/barrier? Mexico pays? Chain migration? Merit system? Sanctuary cities? Econ growth 3-4%? Manufacturing rebound? Biz investment cap-ex boom? Wages already rising, much more coming? Will Fed panic? Gold flat under Yellen; dollar up 16%. Price rule? Powell cautious in 2012\. Came around. Lauds Fed staff forecasts. Decent jobs report. 10-year bond jump to 3-3.5%? Stocks driven by good profits outlook & tax cuts. Earnings revised up to 12% in '18\. Techs,energy, materials, financials, insurance/reinsurance. BUT: key factor is rate rise from better growth & capital returns. Long rate correction in stocks? Then rally continues
Dec 30, 2017
rump/GOP will do well in 2018. Don't listen to fake news pundits & fake polls. Investment boom econ after tax cuts. Key to everything. And everyone will benefit. Rasmussen/McLoughlan: 46-53, same as Obama. The world according to Art Laffer. Growth pay-for deficits. Dollar? Fed? Lindsay v. Clarida? Stocks? Supply-side tax cuts not inflationary. Blinder says corps pay taxes, not people! Corp tax cuts don't affect people. Trade war fears? Top 10 accomplishments made for strong 2017. What's in store for 2018? Budget battle runs into infrastructure. Dems want $1 tr from gov't. Tough trade tariff actions for NAFTA, China, steel, aluminum. China caught selling fuel to China--Russia too. Daca, Wall, refugees, tighter restrictions on legal immigration, Merit replaces family chain. Let Trump be Trump. Home run NYT interview. Staff didn't know. So what? Trump made his own plate at Christmas buffet Mara Lago-- talks to many people. 2018 econ outlook? Tax cuts, profits, rates, SALT effect, global econ better. US boom helps world. Can stocks do it again in 2018? Best & worst in 2017. Correction? Oil, gold, rates, bitcoin. Wealth effect? Goldman takes $5b 1-time hit. Stay w/ financials? Tax cuts priced in? GOP tax cut Is Dems worst nightmare. Reviving econ, jobs, wages, etc. Isn't 4% better than 2%? Fake polls. Trump endorses Ron DeSantis Fla. Gov.
Dec 23, 2017
Trump snatches victory from jaws of defeat. Dems in very bad place. Front end of first investment boom in 20 years. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. 4% is better than 2%. Don't you agree? Corporate tax cut dividend. Higher GDP pays for lost revenues. Middle class winner? Rising tide lifts all boats: everyone wins. Mid-term outlook much better w/ tax cuts & growth. No mid-term disaster (The Hill). Polling is awful. Take-home pay in February. Tax revolt in blue states? Stock boom continues. Higher 10-year to 3.5%? Profits? Fed? Multiples? Sell 100-year bonds? Gen Keane on Trump Doctrine/national security strategy. Economic security is national security. China/Russia? Money politics: Jimmy P welcomes Trump tax cut! Budget fight? Next agenda.
Dec 16, 2017
Pro-growth tax reform sets stage for investment boom. Everyone benefits. JTC: higher GDP pays for tax cuts. Most powerful growth factors.FIFO out. One need not be pro-child credit to be pro-child. Social engineering. High rates & big credit doesn't work. Front end of investment boom. Look at biz equipment. 3rd straight 3% quarter. Retail sales. Fed isn't tax cut enemy. No inflation. 3 more hikes in 2018? Why? Investigate investigators. FBI story spinning out of control. Clinton operatives running investigations. Insane. Trump-hating lawyer trying to pay women to come forward w/ new allegations. Sell to media. Take commissions. Incredible tale of reckless partisan FBI Strzoka and girlfriend. Bitcoin boom? Regulations? Stocks too high? Global growth and liquidity. No inflation. Big stock market week. Dollar & gold steady. McLaughlin poll warnings. Money Politics. Bannon dead. Defending Rubio.