Sep 16, 2017
Trump turnaround makes tax cuts much more likely. 10 weeks. Ryan shifts on revenue neutrality. Mnuchin holding ground on 3% & 15%. Last chance for GOP healthcare reform. Till Sept 30. Ron Johnson bullish. Where is Senate on budget res & reconciliation instructions? Not even Krugman likes Bernie Sanders' single-payer Medicare health. Employer coverage, tax hikes. Milton Friedman: "If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait till you get it for free." Trump's new world: Kelly (Rob Porter) control info. Bi-partisan on immigration & other deals. Positive media coverage. Trump favors optics & positive impressions, not details. Tax the rich. Middle class. Dreamers. But where is Trump tax details? Filling courts w/ conservatives. Fred Barnes & Nick Johnston Axios. Financial markets. Tax cuts haven't seeped in yet. Draft legislation sooner. Buy stocks, sell bonds, buy dollar, sell gold. Profits are mother's milk of stocks. Inflation tax cut. Kotok & Kruszewski. Fed meeting next week: balance sheet, rates, inflation. Is there an immigration deal? Wall? Green cards? 11 million? Students? Sanctuary cities? Deport criminals? Catch & deport? Mark Krikorian & Tamar Jacoby. What does amnesty mean? Money & Politics: Trump turnaround & taxes? Chuck & Nancy? Trump as independent? Ryan turnaround? 3% & 15%? WH & rich people? Bannon bashes Trump on immigration? Single-payer Medicare? Krugman? Moore, Pethokoukis, McIntyre.
Sep 9, 2017
Full hurricane coverage Bill Evans @evansweather. Don't blame hurricanes on Climate Change. Trump deals w/ Schumer-Pelosi for shrewd deal on hurricane relief, debt limit, CR. Clears way for tax cuts & reform. Sends message to McConnell-Ryan. 3% & 15% & wage-earning middle class.He's absolutely committed. Missouri, N Dakota, Milwaukee Sentinel. Neeed Congressional timeline. Need specifics from WH. Need Budget Res for sequester instructions. Need 50 more Trump speeches. Stocks down. Deep dollar dive? Commodity rally? Higher inflation? Fed moves on rates & balance sheet? Profits still strong. Cost-price better. Productivity up. Impact of Harvey & Irma? Myth of Trump do nothing presidency-- 800 regs frozen, rolled back, reclassified. Workers: Fear not robots or AI. Craig Shirley's new book: Citizen Newt. When will Gary Cohn leave? Warsh-Yellen-Powell 3 finalists. Trump polls up: Bi-partisan Fema, debt, handling hurricanes, econ improving. High corp rate yields low revenues. Aparna Mathur.
Sep 2, 2017
Trump's excellent tax speech. 3% growth, 15% biz rate. Link biz tax cuts to wage-earners. Simplification. Middle class. Working people. Deductions end for top earners. End war against investment, biz & success. End class warfare. Supply-side. Details in few weeks. Policy baseline gives $500b cushion. Growth pay-for. Funding Harvey-Fema? Emergency Supp? CR? $200b? Debt limit (gold)? Big support for Trump tax cuts in Trump states. McCaskill, Donnelly, Mansion, Heitkamp. Under pressure. Kevin Warsh takes Fed lead in predictit betting markets. Wonderful oil traders story in Texas. Profits, rescues, contributions. Oil/gasoline impact? Is Gold about to break out? Debt limit fears? Solid but not spectacular jobs. No Fed till year end (maybe). Soft wages, easing inflation, Harvey. Inflation tax cut. Profits booming. Discounted present value model shows stock rally continues. Roger Stone: Making of President 2016. McMaster out. Tough on Bannon. Medical marijuana. Trump/Kelly new team. Trump drafted letter to fire Comey. Did Comey exonerate Hillary before investigation finished?
Aug 26, 2017
Fed-Ex CEO/founder Fred Smith on 3-4% growth policy. Tax reform, infrastructure, free & fair trade. Steve Liesman/Nick Timirao on Fed: 2-horse race for chair? Other appointees? Cohn on money? Yellen on regs? Get rid of Phillips curve? Gold/commodities flat since 2011. No inflation, while growth improves. Global growth better--IMF. Cohn on moral clarity. Bouroudjian/Kelly on stocks. Gov't shut-down? Debt limit? Commodity rally? Dollar fall? Stocks starting correction? Aerospace-defense? Gen Jack Keane on Afghanistan: Doable? Terrorist-hunting not nation-building? Pakistan? India? Take hand-cuffs off military? N Korea launches 3 duds. Budding Sunni Arab coalition of Saudis, Jordan, UAE, Egypt & Jordanto help w/ Israel-Palestine conflict? Moore/Peek/Nickpour: money & politics? No WH tax plan; leave details to Congress committees. Trump to start barnstorming. From Breitbart: Disciplining the prez. Bannon, Gorka, NSC staffers out. Trump war w/ McConnell, Ryan, McCain, Flake?
Aug 19, 2017
Goodwin/Kissel on Charlottesville & Bannon: collapse of presidency? Legitimacy? Dealing w/ GOP Congress? Isolated? Stable presidency? Need Monday-type speech on race? Should have spoken at funeral of Heather Heyer? Infrastructure drowned out? N Korea concession on Guam drowned out? More changes? Gen Kelly up to task? Bannon interview w/ American Prospect Kuttner straw that broke camel's back? New strategist? Steve Miller? Populism message? Overturn elites? travel ban? Immigration?Paris climate accord? Gasparino/Benko on Bannon, Charlottesville & business: Biz walk away? Stay w/policies on tax, reg, infrastructure, trade? Chamber? BRT? Outlook for tax cuts & reform?Debt ceiling? Budget resolution? Less trade protection? Doesn't Trump need a growth message re-set? Infrastructure message blown away? Role of Gary Cohn? Fed by Sept 15? Stay for tax reform? Wall St/Goldman telling him to leave? Judeo-Christian capitalism? Econ growth most populist action. Sound money & tax cuts. Economic nationalism? Globalism? Revenue neutral v. deficit neutral? 3% growth? MUST PASS TAX CUT. Bannon ouster good for biz? Adami/McDonald: why did stocks fall? Cohn factor? Fed rate hike? Profits strong? Dollar rebound? Most important signals for mkt? Rich Clarida: How's the economy? Atlanta Fed Q3= 3.8%. But manufacturing slow, also biz equipment. Low inflation is a tax cut. Why higher? Fed & rate outlook? What needs to be done? Productivity? Moore/Pethokoukis/McCaughey: money & politics? Blacks prospering under Trump? Business rivals agree on policy (Fed-Ex Fred Smith & UPS David Abney). Bi-partisanship? Besides statues, what is Dem policy?
Aug 12, 2017
Amb. John Bolton on N Korea et al. Trump fire & fury; military solutions locked & loaded; big consequences if Guam; could be Venezuela too. Isn't Trump playing his cards exactly right? Mattis talks military solution, but diplomacy first. Harder sanctions on China banks, energy exports etc. Beefing up US missile systems. Reagan: Evil Empire; not contain but overthrow Soviet communism; 10 seconds to bomb Russia. He used major econ sanctions on Sovs. But his SDI system run down by Clinton/Gingrich, papa Bush, Obama & W. We can hit small number of missiles, but not all. Would we ever hit N Korea pre-processing & launch systems? Mattis: If they hit Guam, would lead to end of regime & destruction of its people." From Clinton on, we appeased: lite water nuclear reactors & fuel oil. N Korea back to plutonium by 2002. Gasparino, Tamney & Trennert: Tax reform outlook (Brady dinner). Rates, depreciation, standard deduction, core biz gets full break, 20 year buildings less. CBO: drain the swamp. Index capgains. Trump factor on stocks & econ. Where is McConnell & Senate? Trump right to chide him. 29m small biz helped by tax cuts & frozen or withdrawal of 860 pending regs.Weak dollar doesn't make a strong economy. Phillips curve dead. Fed must change. Kevin O'Leary & Mike Ozanian talk stocks. N Korea impact? Profits? Low inflation tax cut. No spiking bond rates? Buy after bad week? Longer-term? Middle class benefits from stock bull. Fav sectors? Brian Domitrovic & LK talk about new paperback edition of JFK & Reagan Revolution.JFK surpassing Legacy: Growth is everything. Solves nearly all problems. JFK & RR turned back on FDR New Deal. No class warfare. Trump in their tradition. Dems today erased JFK legacy. No growth, just gov't redistribution. Moore, Peth, McIntyre: No Trump effect on stocks & econ? Confidence? Regs? Milton Friedman killing death tax? Retroactive tax cuts? Senate dead? Brady sees whole package. WH has fall-back plan B. Trump's immigration is popular.
Aug 5, 2017
Good jobs report. Wage income up. Employment rate up.Tax cuts coming. Trump channeling JFK-Reagan growth. Middle class benefits from stock rally. End war on biz, success, fossil fuel. The myth of Trump's do-nothing presidency: massive regulatory rollback. Greg Ip. Maine's 2 senators let us down: Gov Paul LePage blasts them. Medicaid. Tax cuts (not Kansas). Trump outlook. DC policy up-date: Valliere & Gabriel. Insurance bailout. Tax cut schedule. Mueller's grand jury. Gen John Kelly. Trade policy threats. Stock rally: Kilburg & Munson. Jobs. Fed? Commodities/dollar? Trump rally? Immigration: Krikorian. Merit, not family-based. Great start. Emily Lazarus. Too few legals? Money & Politics: Francis, Moore, McIntyre. Trump v. GOP? Trump base holding up? Dem bi-partisanship? GOP more united on taxes? Ryan CBO green-eye-shade? Trump stocks? Trump jobs? Gen Kelly rally?
Jul 29, 2017
Cong. Mark Meadows: General Kelly in, Priebus out. Will other shoes fall? Bannon, Sessions, Mueller. Trump used Scaramucci rant attack to oust Priebus. Targeting jobs and downplaying CBO. Will there be a GOP health bill? Was he satisfied with the joint statement on taxes from Senate/House and WH. Investigate Loretta Lynch/Comey? Alan Reynolds: what should the tax cut look like? What will it look like? Can we get 3 percent growth? Deficit neutral vs. revenue neutral? What shape is the economy in? Does health bill collapse damage GOP tax effort? GDP: 2% growth, 1.5% inflation, what does that mean? Stocks with Jon Najarian and Michael Cuggino: Dow posts record close as Wall Street shakes off Amazon’s fall. No BAT tax, good for retailers. Fed? Dollar? Copper, China? Kilmeade/Nikpour: is the White House staff unraveling? Whose neck gets chopped off next? Using Scaramucci as a messenger? Sessions/Mueller/Bannon? Never Trump Republicans say POTUS is an authoritarian undermining democracy because he fired Comey. Money/Politics: is Paul Ryan’s green eyeshade CBO devotion going to derail tax cuts? Is Plan B — 3 Easy Pieces still in play? POTUS put Gary Cohn on the list for Fed chair (per WSJ). Next steps for GOP healthcare. Greg Ip’s column on Trump deregulation.