Oct 7, 2017
Kevin Hassett spanks TPC. corp taxes & wage-earners. Lower marginal rates = growth. Gary Cohn: 3% growth ultimate pay-for? How you gonna get it done? Process must not block growth policies. Hardball. GOP mau-maued on top rate? Class warfare never works. Why penalize success? End war on biz? Salt? Deal? Inheritance? Timing after budget Res? End investment penalties? Earnings stripping? Global minimum tax? Capgains? State of econ? Trump factor? Massive dereg-- Treasury yesterday. Fed orthodoxy: rapid growth causes inflation? High rates choke off Trump boom? Trade worries: NAFTA & Chamber. Car parts. US domestic content. No arbitration. Why are trade deficits bad? Whirlpool v. Samsung? Whirlpool? Anti-dumping? Injurious to US firm? Why are trade deficits bad? Capital inflows? Stocks: Fear Not. 20 x next year's earnings. Rising econ, profits, capex, dollar. Gold falling. Cyclical growth stocks. Neal Freeman: Skirmishes. Bill Buckley changed conservatism? Mayor run in '65. Where is conservative movement now? Trump? Money & Politics: Why can't Dems cut taxes? JFK? Senate budget res get job done?
Sep 30, 2017
Trump galvanizing tax cuts. Incentives matter. Mentioned JFK. Growth cynics. Reconciliation process must not block good policy. Phil Gramm's numbers. Will tax cuts pass? Should they? Temporary or permanent? Senate budget resolution. Tom Price gets the boot. POTUS interviewed Warsh & Powell. Stocks anticipating tax cuts? Gold keeps falling. Real rates going up? Bill O'Reilly's "Killing England."
Sep 23, 2017
Health reform not dead: Murkowski, Paul, Alexander (couldn't make bipartisan deal w/ Patti Murray on insurance cost sharing bailout.) Last chance to reverse O-Care, stop single payer or Bernie's free medicare. GOP messaging on risk pools $150b savings, federal safety net. Premiums falling. More choice, state waivers, private markets, end mandates. Mandate taxes fall heavily on poor. Trump in better shape. Hurricanes, UN, Rocket Man, tax cuts and reform, polls rising. Could end up w/ health & taxes. Questions on G-C: change medicaid funding, block grant redistribution to states (37% of funding go to Cal, NY, Md, Mass.) Pre-existing conditions, enrollment, premiums. Harvard poll says everyone wants tax cuts. Luther Strange v. Roy Moore. Breitbart v. Trump. Trump takes command & UN. Rocket Man. Iran. Sovereignty. Radical Islam Terrorists. Righteousness: moral base of Admin. Tough financial sanctions. China agrees. Toomey-Corker deal: $1.5 tr tax cuts. Accept deficits couple of years. 20-year window. 3% growth. 15% corp rate. Loophole closers. Tuesday announcement from G-6. Ways & Means Sunday-Monday. Stocks up, gold down, commodities up, materials, industrials banks up. Tax cut growth play? Bond rates up. Does anyone care about Fed?
Sep 16, 2017
Trump turnaround makes tax cuts much more likely. 10 weeks. Ryan shifts on revenue neutrality. Mnuchin holding ground on 3% & 15%. Last chance for GOP healthcare reform. Till Sept 30. Ron Johnson bullish. Where is Senate on budget res & reconciliation instructions? Not even Krugman likes Bernie Sanders' single-payer Medicare health. Employer coverage, tax hikes. Milton Friedman: "If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait till you get it for free." Trump's new world: Kelly (Rob Porter) control info. Bi-partisan on immigration & other deals. Positive media coverage. Trump favors optics & positive impressions, not details. Tax the rich. Middle class. Dreamers. But where is Trump tax details? Filling courts w/ conservatives. Fred Barnes & Nick Johnston Axios. Financial markets. Tax cuts haven't seeped in yet. Draft legislation sooner. Buy stocks, sell bonds, buy dollar, sell gold. Profits are mother's milk of stocks. Inflation tax cut. Kotok & Kruszewski. Fed meeting next week: balance sheet, rates, inflation. Is there an immigration deal? Wall? Green cards? 11 million? Students? Sanctuary cities? Deport criminals? Catch & deport? Mark Krikorian & Tamar Jacoby. What does amnesty mean? Money & Politics: Trump turnaround & taxes? Chuck & Nancy? Trump as independent? Ryan turnaround? 3% & 15%? WH & rich people? Bannon bashes Trump on immigration? Single-payer Medicare? Krugman? Moore, Pethokoukis, McIntyre.
Sep 9, 2017
Full hurricane coverage Bill Evans @evansweather. Don't blame hurricanes on Climate Change. Trump deals w/ Schumer-Pelosi for shrewd deal on hurricane relief, debt limit, CR. Clears way for tax cuts & reform. Sends message to McConnell-Ryan. 3% & 15% & wage-earning middle class.He's absolutely committed. Missouri, N Dakota, Milwaukee Sentinel. Neeed Congressional timeline. Need specifics from WH. Need Budget Res for sequester instructions. Need 50 more Trump speeches. Stocks down. Deep dollar dive? Commodity rally? Higher inflation? Fed moves on rates & balance sheet? Profits still strong. Cost-price better. Productivity up. Impact of Harvey & Irma? Myth of Trump do nothing presidency-- 800 regs frozen, rolled back, reclassified. Workers: Fear not robots or AI. Craig Shirley's new book: Citizen Newt. When will Gary Cohn leave? Warsh-Yellen-Powell 3 finalists. Trump polls up: Bi-partisan Fema, debt, handling hurricanes, econ improving. High corp rate yields low revenues. Aparna Mathur.
Sep 2, 2017
Trump's excellent tax speech. 3% growth, 15% biz rate. Link biz tax cuts to wage-earners. Simplification. Middle class. Working people. Deductions end for top earners. End war against investment, biz & success. End class warfare. Supply-side. Details in few weeks. Policy baseline gives $500b cushion. Growth pay-for. Funding Harvey-Fema? Emergency Supp? CR? $200b? Debt limit (gold)? Big support for Trump tax cuts in Trump states. McCaskill, Donnelly, Mansion, Heitkamp. Under pressure. Kevin Warsh takes Fed lead in predictit betting markets. Wonderful oil traders story in Texas. Profits, rescues, contributions. Oil/gasoline impact? Is Gold about to break out? Debt limit fears? Solid but not spectacular jobs. No Fed till year end (maybe). Soft wages, easing inflation, Harvey. Inflation tax cut. Profits booming. Discounted present value model shows stock rally continues. Roger Stone: Making of President 2016. McMaster out. Tough on Bannon. Medical marijuana. Trump/Kelly new team. Trump drafted letter to fire Comey. Did Comey exonerate Hillary before investigation finished?
Aug 26, 2017
Fed-Ex CEO/founder Fred Smith on 3-4% growth policy. Tax reform, infrastructure, free & fair trade. Steve Liesman/Nick Timirao on Fed: 2-horse race for chair? Other appointees? Cohn on money? Yellen on regs? Get rid of Phillips curve? Gold/commodities flat since 2011. No inflation, while growth improves. Global growth better--IMF. Cohn on moral clarity. Bouroudjian/Kelly on stocks. Gov't shut-down? Debt limit? Commodity rally? Dollar fall? Stocks starting correction? Aerospace-defense? Gen Jack Keane on Afghanistan: Doable? Terrorist-hunting not nation-building? Pakistan? India? Take hand-cuffs off military? N Korea launches 3 duds. Budding Sunni Arab coalition of Saudis, Jordan, UAE, Egypt & Jordanto help w/ Israel-Palestine conflict? Moore/Peek/Nickpour: money & politics? No WH tax plan; leave details to Congress committees. Trump to start barnstorming. From Breitbart: Disciplining the prez. Bannon, Gorka, NSC staffers out. Trump war w/ McConnell, Ryan, McCain, Flake?
Aug 19, 2017
Goodwin/Kissel on Charlottesville & Bannon: collapse of presidency? Legitimacy? Dealing w/ GOP Congress? Isolated? Stable presidency? Need Monday-type speech on race? Should have spoken at funeral of Heather Heyer? Infrastructure drowned out? N Korea concession on Guam drowned out? More changes? Gen Kelly up to task? Bannon interview w/ American Prospect Kuttner straw that broke camel's back? New strategist? Steve Miller? Populism message? Overturn elites? travel ban? Immigration?Paris climate accord? Gasparino/Benko on Bannon, Charlottesville & business: Biz walk away? Stay w/policies on tax, reg, infrastructure, trade? Chamber? BRT? Outlook for tax cuts & reform?Debt ceiling? Budget resolution? Less trade protection? Doesn't Trump need a growth message re-set? Infrastructure message blown away? Role of Gary Cohn? Fed by Sept 15? Stay for tax reform? Wall St/Goldman telling him to leave? Judeo-Christian capitalism? Econ growth most populist action. Sound money & tax cuts. Economic nationalism? Globalism? Revenue neutral v. deficit neutral? 3% growth? MUST PASS TAX CUT. Bannon ouster good for biz? Adami/McDonald: why did stocks fall? Cohn factor? Fed rate hike? Profits strong? Dollar rebound? Most important signals for mkt? Rich Clarida: How's the economy? Atlanta Fed Q3= 3.8%. But manufacturing slow, also biz equipment. Low inflation is a tax cut. Why higher? Fed & rate outlook? What needs to be done? Productivity? Moore/Pethokoukis/McCaughey: money & politics? Blacks prospering under Trump? Business rivals agree on policy (Fed-Ex Fred Smith & UPS David Abney). Bi-partisanship? Besides statues, what is Dem policy?