Jul 30, 2016
Who won battle of conventions? Trump too dark & pessim? Hill & Dems grabbed Reagan high ground of optimism & exceptionalism? FDR/Reagan? Michael Goodwin NY Post: Hill's big speech uninspired Left wish list. Hillary recession? Trump knows you can't tax your way into prosperity. Tax cutters JFK & Reagan huge growth from tax cuts. Real Hillary? Change-Maker? Trustworthy? Really? Clinton Foundation cash linked to Putin & oligarchs. Should Trump have raised Russia & DNC hacking? Clinton campaign too? Polls even up, but only 44%. Meaning? US econ perilously close to recession. Profits & biz investment keep falling. 1.2% RGDP disaster. Might Fed really hike rates in September? Stood pat July. Level Fed & start over! Rules. Currency stability. Small biz, farmers, small banks. Phd models all wrong. Deregulate interest rates. Stanford/Hoover econ John Taylor & Wall St econ John Ryding. Stocks off for the week. What is profits story?
Jul 23, 2016
Did Trump speech get job done? Persuade he can get job done & turn country around? Optimism? Revivalism? Pence speech saved Republican convention. Who is Sen Tim Kaine? Will Elizabeth Warren revolt (like dummy Ted Cruz)? Sen Rob Portman: politics, convention & Comprehensive Addiction & Recovery Act. RNC Convention analysis: Art Laffer, Kellyanne Conway, Jim McLaughlin, Ed Klein, Michael Goodwin. Breibart's Milo Yiannopoulis on GOP break-up, Facebook's liberal bias, why was he thrown out of Twitter? Stocks keep rolling. Peter Costa, Liz Ann Sonders. Fed next week? Money & Politics A-Team: Steve Moore, Jimmy P, John McIntyre
Jul 16, 2016
Gen. Jack Keane: Nice, Turkey. World in chaos? Lawlessness? Religious war? US War Declaration? What is our strategy? Former Sec State George Shultz: No country ever long maintained its military power when its econ foundation faltered. Need message of strength to rest of world. Barbary Pirates-- Tom Jefferson. First defeat of Muslim radicals. 2 homers by Donald Trump: Declaration of War & Mike Pence. Democratic platform sharp left turn. Beyond Obama! Where's Hillary growth package? Hillary blames whites & cops for shootings in St Paul, Baton Rouge, Dallas. Embraces Black Lives Matter. Trump defends cops: I'm candidate of law & order. Tear down the Fed. Start all over. (dereg rates, end interest on excess reserves, rule-based, stable dollar, small biz on Fed, end Phd phony models.) Better econ stats. 3% Q2. But 1.9% y/y. Post Brexit stock melt-up? But will profits sustain it?
Jul 9, 2016
What is wrong w/ America? Shooting after shooting. What should be done? Need new moral movement? Community policing? Training? Can't just blame Obama or a few groups. Bigger problems than that. Is Jim Comey treating Hillary different than ordinary folks? Is Comey decision really a gift for Donald Trump? Killer for Hillary? Trump has good day in DC. Jobs rebound, but trend still slowing. Time for a supply-side solution? Stocks stabilize after Brexit, but Q2 profits begin this week.
Jul 2, 2016
Henry Kissinger talks about Brexit opportunities & ISIS horrors. Financial markets recovering nicely, esp US & Britain. Justice Minister Michael Gove v. Home Secretary Theresa May. Tories need leader & vision. Independence Day: Life, Liberty & Pursuit of Happiness. We must work to keep it that way. Greatest country in history of the world. Top AEI economist Kevin Hassett talks about Brexit impact, tax reform, trade, outlook for jobs and economy. Book Notes: WSJ Kim Strassell: The Intimidation Game. Blaze Dana Loesch: Flyover Nation. Steve Moore on Energy Independence. Strange case of Loretta Lynch & Bill Clinton. What is really going on here? Can we trust stock rally? Profits still falling.