Now displaying: March, 2017
Mar 25, 2017
GOP missed great opportunity to repeal & replace OB-Care. Limit gov't. end entitlement. Reagan 70% rule? Get to Senate, then conference, then reconciliation. Plenty of blame to spread around. Ryan never worked w/ Freedom Caucus for changes. Done by Trump-- yeoman's work. How could Ryan not understand reconciliation rules stretched to regs? No one talked to parliamentarian until Sen Mike Lee! Essential benefits? Guaranteed issue for sick. Tax credits? Freedom Caucus could have made Reagan-type deal. Missed opportunity for tax repeal. Especially capgains = 1000-1500 on Dow. Help econ & stocks. Is it dead? Or just a battle to win long war? Ryan revolt? Meadows, Jordan, Blackburn? Shake-up in WH? Has Ryan changed? Supply-side to root canal? But, now tax reform could come 4-5 months earlier. Get rid of BAT. Work reconciliation. Include Freedom Caucus. Corp tax cut helps middle class wage-earners the most. Should have been done first. Retroactive Jan 2017? Stocks worst week since October. Trump worries about tax reform & reg rollback? Worldwide mfging getting better? Profits? !% RGDP Q1? Low revenues & NGDP? Change strategy? Trade protectionism hurts consumers most. Insourcing creates good-paying jobs. Infrastructure? Security: wall, refugees, destroy ISIS. People want peace & prosperity.
Mar 18, 2017
AHCA: will it make it? Deals? Amendments? Reagan would have made deal for 70%. Trump needs W. Why couldn't he do taxes first? Budget savings? Parliamentarian? Still technically graft on to health reconciliation. AHCA: Is medicaid answer for uninsured? How do risk pools work? Tax credits? Insurance rules? 30%? Insurance mandates? Guarantee issue? Essential benefits? 2nd & 3rd buckets? But mandates end, taxes repealed, gov't smaller, pro-growth, pro-healthcare. CBO scorecard? Trump budget dead on arrival? Programs don't work. Meals on wheels. Community Development Block Grants. EPA. Foreign aid. Big defense $54b. Offsets for 2018, start in 2017. Art Laffer: How's Trump outlook & performance? Protection, BAT, Taxes, Regs, energy etc. Econ outlook for 2017-18? Rates? Stocks? Assistant OMB director! Trump optimism? Animal spirits? Fed? Michael Savage: Trump's War: His Battle for America. Populism? Globalism? Protectionism? Wire-tapping? Merkel-Trump meeting? Mnuchin tell Schauble no trade war & strong dollar. Stocks flat. Fed rate hike. Jamie Dimon touts repatriation. Q4 profits fell. Atlanta Fed GDPNow 0.9% Q1. Commodities & inflation.
Mar 11, 2017
Tax reform should come first. Moore, Laffer, Forbes, me. Don't need revenue neutral. Shift tax credits & std deduction. Potus needs W's. Higher capgains, lower revenues. Graft on to reconciliation. Pro-growth. AHCA: more to low end, less to hi end. Pay sick directly w/ vouchers.Huge tax cut. Good shouldn't be enemy of perfect. GOP always has tax credits. Level biz & indiv. Get rid of mandates. How can conservatives fix 1st draft. Good but not great jobs. Fed rate hike. For inflation, non-wage commodities, mkt price indicators. '85-2000. Wayne Angell. Steve Forbes on trade, BAT, tax reform, econ, interest rates. White House civil war on trade. Stocks over-valued? Q4 domestic profits fell. Delayed tax reform.
Mar 4, 2017
Trump's speech optimistic & transformational. Civility, bi-partisan, unity. National confidence. Nick Eberstadt: "Men w/out Work: America's Invisible Crisis." Our miserable 21st century. David Smick: "There's Plenty of Hope for Tax Reform." As Trump unmuzzles econ, rosy scenario will become econ reality. Mark Krikorian: Kinder, softer Trump immigration policy? Avik Roy: ACA reform a tax cut in reconciliation? Biz tax reform also? Is Medicare really going broke? Refundable tax credits a new entitlement? Trump hasn't yet made decision on BAT. WH battle. So many contradictions. Hi dollar hurts exports. Tax imports w/ consumer price hikes will weaken growth; $1.1 TR pay-for never happen. Why not 3-4% growth? Policies affect productivity & work effort. Yellen signals rate hike. 35%- 90% w/ no new numbers! Commodity price rule. Taylor rule. Non-labor inflation model. Trump rally still booming. Profits rising. Better numbers PMI globally. Tech bubble?
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