Apr 29, 2017
Trump's dramatic tax reform announcement caps off solid 1st hundred days. Gorsuch, reg rollback, border & national security. Consumer, biz, small biz, & stocks all up. Trade war fears down: China, NAFTA, 232, dumping wood & steel. Negotiation, not war? 2nd hundred days: taxes, healthcare, infrastructure, border wall, refugee visas, sanctuary cities. Can GOP govern? It looks more optimistic to me. Trump optimism: Think big, dream bigger. Foreign policy surprises: Syria, Russia, N Korea, ISIS. Endgames? Winning? Is senior staff operation coming together? Foreign? Domestic? Econ? Trade? Can GOP govern? What are polls telling us? Democrats 1st hundred days? Tax cut growth pays-for deficits! Mnuchin. Campaign plan won. WAPO & NYT. Wage-earners. Obama people carping on deficits? New Deal failed, it's our turn JFK-Reagan-Trump. Trump must sell it. Growth, jobs, wages. Rallies. Reconciliation whatever you want it to be. Stocks rally on taxes & trade. Earnings up. GDP 2%. Fed?
Apr 22, 2017
Can biz tax cuts pay for themselves? Mnuchin & Cohn say yes to dynamic growth models. So does Art Laffer Comm4Prosperity. Committee for a Responsible Budget says no. Maria Bartiromo talks about Trump interview and her financial economic outlook. Is their a Health Care deal ? Working w/ Senate? Tax Reform this week? CR extension? Gov't shutdown? Dynamic scoring? 3%=$4 tr revenue increase. Cong Dave Bratt. Is bipartisan corporate tax reform possible? Former Obama CEA chair Jason Furman. Flattening yield curve, falling bond rates, lower inflation breakevens, decline retails sales, no biz investment? Profits over exuberant? GO rose in Q4. Trump policies? Why BAT tax is wrong. Corp tax reform. Tax rate incentives matter. Is Trump wrong on trade? Can we make 3% growth? Alan Reynolds birthday week. Start w/ biz tax, then omnibus individual tax. Child tax credits? Infrastructure? What will Trump tax overhaul look like? Throw out campaign plan? 1962 Trade law section 232 national security protectionism? Tampering w/ H-1B visas? Buy America? Reagan or Bush economy?
Apr 15, 2017
Easter: We have all found ourselves at the foot of the Cross. Stay a while on Good Friday, before rushing to the great Vigil of Resurrection on Sunday. Stay a while to ponder the awful Crucifixion. He died for our sins. What were/are those sins? What must we do to atone? Fr. Richard John Neuhaus: Death on a Friday Afternoon. Passover supper is Last Supper. Trump reversals & Trump strengths. Ex-Im (Scott Garrett), Yellen, rates, dollar, tax & health reform, reciprocity, Syria, Russia, no China currency manipulation, easier trade w/ China re N. Korea. Trump promises kept: tax, repeal & replace (tho total confusion; NEC-Cohn haven't done their job), pipeline, EPA, border security, refugees. Drain swamp-- overturn establishment elites. Problems gone unfixed for 20 years. Give him a chance. Tax plan scrapped? W/ cheap dollar? Reversal of JFK-Reagan. Drain CBO swamp. Growth is mother of all pay-fors. GOP hardball on reconciliation. Stocks slip. Retail sales fall 2nd straight month. Syria impact? Oil recession over? Profits? Mixed signals. The Benedict Option by Rod Dreher. Bannon down? More centrist Trump?
Apr 1, 2017
Want to raise wages? Cut biz tax rates first. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney on budget, taxes, healthcare. Team Trump not ready for tax reform? Mnuchin v. Cohn? Carbon tax? Gen Jack Keane on Mosul, Raqqa, Sunnis, defense budget. Nothing wrong w/ trade deficit-- flip side of capital inflows. Team Trump never mentions that. Kill border tax before it kills us. BTW, dollar will fall, not rise. Foreign imports subject to US state & local sales taxes. 6.5% average Big states up to 8-10%. Why is POTUS attacking conservative Freedom Caucus? He's gonna need them down the road. Reagan Rising: 1976-1980 wilderness years. Craig Shirley. Are core profits slumping? Problem for stocks? Trump trade faltering?