Now displaying: May, 2017
May 27, 2017
Dan Clifton & Mike Solon: Trump's new budget: back to Clinton welfare reform; make it pay to work. There are no cuts. Just slower growth. What about tax cuts? Ryan gives up BAT tax? Senate? Detailed plan from WH? Parental leave? Joe Rago & Hadley Heath Manning: Repeal & Replace: when, what, how? Messaging? Risk pools? Premiums? Keep your doctor? GOP promise to fund poor, ill, pre-conditions? Medicaid? Senate: not 50 votes yet. Brian Kelly & Peter Costa: Stocks: domestic profits falling, so are profit margins. Commodities? Bitcoin? Fed rate hikes? Fed shrinks balance sheet: retire reserves. Flat curve? April capex not good. Gen Jack Keane: Trump changes policies in Mid-East. From Iran to Saudis & Israel. Sunni-Arab-Israel NATO? $100b to Saudis. Iran-Hezbolla-Hamas real enemy. What about campaign to destroy ISIS? NATO not taking terrorism seriously. Moore-Pethokoukis-McIntyre: Money Politics: Lawyers stop Trump tweets? Staff shake-up? War Room? Corey Lewandowsky, Dave Bossie, David Urban. How about econ side? Kushner-Russia?
May 20, 2017
Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin leads way for pro-growth tax cuts w/ 3% growth paying for them. Reconciliation very flexible? Don't have to use CBO or JTC estimates. Is Admin coming together w/ House/Senate? Timetable? Year end? Banking reform? "Let this go" is not obstruction of justice. Not crime.Mueller's jurisdiction? Narrower than past. Why didn't Comey report memo to DoJ? How long? Advice to Trump? Confusion: what are they investigating? Sr. WH official person of interest. WH leaks! Nut job. Relieved Trump pressure. Stocks: buy the dip because tax cuts are coming? Profits? Econ outlook? Fed? Amazon near 1,000? 250% S&P is bull mkt not just a rally? Dollar-gold-oil? Dr. Rock Positano: "Dinner w/ DiMaggio: Memories of American Hero" Money & Politics: Can US get back to 3% growth? Most econs say no. But capital formation is key. Outlook for health & tax reform? Pence for Prez?
May 13, 2017
All things Trump-Comey. Damage to him & GOP?Damage to growth agenda? Stone advise him? WH shake-up? Esp communications? New FBI? Trump not under investigation? Healthcare bigger problem for tax cuts than Comey? If no tax cuts & growth spurt, GOP crushed in mid-terms? Ryan: we can walk & chew gum at same time. Cornyn: healthcare before yearend. But why did Ryan bungle reconciliation/regs? Payroll tax cut for workers? No wage deduction for employers? Ted Cruz major player in health compromise. Working w/ McConnell. Same working group for taxes? 3% growth baseline? Biz tax cuts lead to capita deepening, productivity & wages. Why have wages flatlined? US- China trade deal very good. Trumps turns around. Negotiation not war. Day the earth was hacked! Stocks: No gold sky-high or stock plunge on Comey. Retail store collapse? CPI & retail sales slowing. Commodities soft (no inflation).
May 6, 2017
Sen Ted Cruz: Senate outlook for healthcare & tax reform. What should be done, what will be done? Can he support? House bill moving in free market direction? Turn back on New Deal like JFK & Ronald Reagan (populist)? States rights, 10th Amendment, federalism: medicaid caps, illness prior conditions risk pools, essential benefits mandate. $900b tax repeal. Reconciliation? Filibusters? Regs? Senate parliamentarian? Opens way for tax reform/biz tax cuts. Growth pay-for? State-local tax deduction? BAT? House Freedom Caucus tax plan? How long for tax cuts? GOP as party of working men & women? Dems elites? Taxes, health, success, biz, border security, refugees, abortion, trade, MAGA, world leadership? Growth/prosperity greatest populist issue? Former Sen. Tom Coburn & Betsy McCaughey on health debate, House bill, Senate priorities. Jobs, econ outlook, Fed rate hikes? Stocks side-ways. Profits strong. But no biz investment. Saintly wife doubled sales 1st 5 months: Trump confidence? Deflation pressures? Apple $1b USA investment? Jimmy P: Hal Varian & capital deepening.
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