Mar 31, 2018
Redemption: Easter & Passover MAGA: US econ growing------ RGDP, cap-ex, job openings, unemployment claims, supply-side policies Next big thing? Growth message. Infrastructure, trade, immigration, Wall, N Korea, tough trade/free trade, Korus Trump v. Amazon Stock outlook: profits strong, cautious Fed, trade obstacle, FANG John Bolton Is there too much budget spending? Impoundment? Filibuster?
Mar 24, 2018
Surprisingly tough tariffs on China. Stk market very upset. Trump negotiating, and he may get it right (N Korea, NATO etc). But a bit of riverboat gamble if Xi doesn't play ball. However steel tariffs excluded from bunch of nations, most interestingly EU, along w/ Brazil, Argentina, S Korea and of course Canada & Mexico. This is good for NAFTA. China created this problem, Trump trying to solve it. Some negative econ hits, but small. Certain states, esp farm, will be hit. China now 1st world country; must behave like one. Adhere to WTO. Stop tech transfers & stealing intell property rights.Steel & aluminum tariffs wind up hurting China & Russia most. Trade deficits don't matter. flip side of valuable capital inflows. Deficits will grow in 3-4% econ. Why not remove taxes on all Asian countries but China? Vietnam? Coalition of willing to change China. Fed rate to 1.75% is ok. But yield curve is flattening. Profits holding up. Are stocks overreacting to tariffs? Cap-ex strong. But Admin must stay on message. Infrastructure? The Democrats abandon Catholics. Budget deal a lousy one. But Trump is right: Give him line-item veto/recission power. End filibuster.
Mar 17, 2018
Trump on Tariffs: A negotiating tactic. Even Feldstein. Coalition of willing to hit China. But not blanket tariffs trade war against world. Loss in Pa: What's it mean? Is Trump off message? Growth, jobs, wages, prosperity tax cuts, Phase 2 tax cuts. Liz Peek & Melissa Francis. Predicting the markets: Ed Yardeni Insiders look at SEC: Norm Champ--- preventing next crash. Sarbanes Oxcley. Dodd Frank. Volcker rule. Stocks: another down week. Why? Inflation-rates-profits? Emerging mkts? Bouroudjian-Polcari Money/politics: Will Kudlow be crushed? Trump in Pa? Off message?
Mar 10, 2018
Hard to find better employment report. Big jobs, moderate wages, plenty new people came to work. Growth w/out inflation. True around the world. Ed Lazear, Stanford & Hoover; Joe Lavorgna. NAIRU dead? Phillips curve dead? Trump backs off tariffs. Virtually no one will pay. They could have been harmful to US econ. Foreign retaliation. Gary Cohn leaves. Trump negotiating style: punch them in teeth first, then make a deal. Nato spending & tariffs. Why not targeted tariffs against China? Save steel w/ budget subsidies & transparency. GOP Congress & Ryan against. Nationalist? Protectionist? Or fair & free trade? Dan Henniger, deputy editor WSJ editorial page. Trump's Hoover temptation. Apres Cohn, le deluge? Trump's Tariff folly. Trump attacks WSJ. Trump's tariffs hurt trade, which is good. Tear down barriers. Capital inflows. Stocks w/ Jon Najarian & Jeff Kleintop: overheating? Inflation? Tariffs? Jobs? Gen Jack Keane: N Korean story. Trump sanctions work? Denuclearize? Planning for meeting? Goals? Money/Politics: Trump going for clean reset? Bossie & Lewandowsky in WH? McMaster? Kelly? JiVanka?
Mar 3, 2018
Blanket tariffs on steel & aluminum a bad idea. Tax hike on biz users & consumers. Prosperity-killer? Will it doom NAFTA? All hell could break loose. Stocks saying don't do it. Trade wars are not good. Same 25% & 10% steel & aluminum for allies & enemies. Veronique de Rugy & money politics. POTUS has exec authority to do it. I continue to urge Gary Cohn to stay on job. More trade battles coming. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney interview. GDP growth pays for tax cuts. Spending tougher than you think. Econ strong. Trade protection not good. What can be done w/ CFPB? Not much. Former 3-time NYS Gov George Pataki. How can GOP re-capture Northeast? Outlook for mid-terms? Econ? Taxes? Immigration? Guns? Nancy Tengler & Mike Ozanian on stocks? Another down week. Damage from trade protection. NAFTA? Trade war? Inflation may roar back? Powell looking at rule-based monetary policy. Taylor rule. Profits & revenues? Longs & shorts? Gen Jack Keane: Trade war & foreign policy?Allies & enemies both hit. Russian saber rattling. Chinese dictatorship. Tsi for life? Money & Politics: New data counters liberal pessimism. Trade politics. Cohn to stay? I say yes. Canada & others go to WTO?
Feb 24, 2018
Mary Kissel & Liz Peek: What's Trump gonna do about guns? School guards (ex cops)? Age limit? Teachers packing guns? Restraint order? Automatic weapons? Gun bump? Is it NRA, or drug companies who prescribe crazies really bad drugs? Dems gonna get bushwhacked in mid-terms? Econ/tax cuts? Dems rooting for stk & econ failure? Trump nails them on immigration? Trump rocks CPAC! 7 more years? 50% Rasmussen poll approval. Why is America at war w/ itself? How Billy Graham changed my life-- George Bush quit drinking. Kevin Hassett CEA chair releases Trump econ report. Growth? Inflation? Wages-inflation? Wage-earners helped the most? JPM & Goldman say no. Steel protection? NAFTA? Trade deficit? Foreign investors buy US debt? Weak dollar inflation? Interest rates? Guy Adami & Ron Kruszewski on stocks? 10-year going to 4%? Real v inflation? Sometimes Stks up as rates rise. Fed tighter? Profits strong? Stk safety net? BoA worried about cryptocurrencies. Congressman Tom MacArthur on Legislative outlook: Immigration, guns, infrastructure, entitlements in budget. US at war w/ itself. Noelle Nikpour, Jimmy P, Steve Moore: Trump budget-- OMB. Much better numbers. Tax Foundation deficits much lower. Dems attack shareholder repurchase. Investment boom coming on fast. What are big donors saying about Trump & mid-terms?
Feb 17, 2018
Trump must return to KingDollar to sustain prosperity and march to re-election. @Moore, Steve @James Pethokoukis@Elizabeth Peek Will infrastructure be a boondoggle or serious growth measure? Fed gov't? Public/Private? Is there an inflation threat? @Lavorgna Joseph @Lavorgnanomics. Capgoods boom? More potential to grow? @davidbahnson: " A Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It." Sen Bill Cassidy: Rising GOP mid-term outlook w/ tax cut popularity & growth/jobs/wages. Russian Indictments? No Trump collusion? Infrastructure. Sen David Perdue: Is Trump budget really so bad? Reform entitlements? Workfare? Deficits & Debt? Budget reform? Immigration gonna make it? Stock market comes back strong. Have rates peaked? Correction over? Inflation fears? Deficits & debt worries? Bitcoin update?
Feb 10, 2018
Is GOP still party of spending restraint? Is Tea Party over? 2-year budget deal eliminates spending caps & sequester. Special tax breaks ? Entitlements? Medicaid? OB-Care? Rules? 20%/GDP ? Cong Mark Meadows, chair of Freedom Caucus Is economy fundamentally sound? So stocks still good buy at lower prices? War on Rich won't help the poor: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-war-on-the-rich-wont-help-the-poor-1518134282?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 It's real interest rates from stronger economy that led to 10% stock correction. Vix derivatives? Profits still mother's milk of economy? When to buy? https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-slump-continues-1518138066 The post-war Marshall plan helped save West European democracies from Communism. Will Trump America First weaken alliance? https://www.wsj.com/articles/review-when-the-marshall-plan-helped-plot-a-new-course-for-the-west-1518212300 https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-china-impose-a-new-world-order-1518219178 Seton Hall speech on JFK & the Reagan Revolution-----Kudlow & Domitrovic Is White House again splintering into disorder? Kelly-Porter-Thornton-Cohn-Mulvaney American Spies gave $100K to Russian to get dirt on Trump!!!!
Feb 3, 2018
Whole Russian investigation a scam based on phony dossier from Clinton payroll. Give Mueller 3 months to rap it all up. There's no there there. 600 point stock drop from higher real & market rates and stronger economy. Correction a good thing. Buy the dip. Don't forget excellent Davos & SOTU speeches. America open for biz. Free, fair & reciprocal trade; no NAFTA pullout. Appeal to Dems cooperation. Euro social justice ceos may hate Trump, but now they're behind his policies cause he's making so much money for them. Do Dems really want immigration reform? Doubtful. Budget shutdown. Debt limit. Infrastructure? Strong jobs report. Wages rising. Econ shifting into high gear. Supply-side impact from tax rate reduction. More people working do not cause inflation. Gold falling. Mid-term election looks much closer w/ rising econ, end of Russian nonsense, Trump wanting immigration deal. What do Dems represent besides Trump hating.
Jan 27, 2018
America First Triumphs in Davos. Open for business. Going to Davos a brilliant strategy. But America First does not mean America Alone. Trump accommodating NAFTA & TPP? Reciprocity. Dollar will get stronger & stronger. Increasingly prominent Sen David Perdue standing w/ Trump on immigration. Tax reform investment boom. SOTU preview. Stocks still on a tear. New records. Dollar? Gold? Oil? Strong investment. Profits. Fed rate hike? Did Trump really want to fire Mueller? Should he? Should he appear under oath before Mueller? What's this classified document w/ Clinton operatives & phony dossier & FISA? Will secular stagnationists Larry Summers and Jason Furman eat crow. A new more flexible Trump on trade, immigration? Policy power of Gen Kelly?