Nov 18, 2017
GOP momentum for tax cuts. Ain't perfect, but biz side pro-growth. POTUS wants 35% top rate. Sen Ron Johnson wants bigger tax cut for small biz. Will O-Care mandate repeal work? Tax the rich so boring & stupid. Oren Hatch cleaned Sherrod Brown's clock. Schumer playing Salt. Good polling shows people want tax cuts. Wilbur Ross & NAFTA time-bomb. Roy Moore could be a problem. Jones ahead. 1 week to swear in. Dec 12 election. Do stock funds have to sell old stuff first? 2-week stock drop, but no recession in sight. God, Faith & Reason by Michael Savage.
Nov 11, 2017
Pro-growth tax bill is on the way before year. Tax Foundation details of Senate bill. House has much bigger tax cuts first couple of years--Dan Clifton. Why not 3% growth? Nuclear option for Byrd rule. Why CBO always wrong. Why tax cuts are really fair---- Larry Kotlicoff. Get rid of corp tax altogether. All out war: Plot to destroy Trump. Ed Klein. Trump's Pacific Trade Tear. GOP retirements threaten House majority. Dump Roy Moore? Tied w/ Dem opponent. Senate campaign pulling money. He dated teen aged girls. Donna Brazile blows whistle on Dem Party corruption. Stocks down first time in many weeks. Buy the dip.
Nov 4, 2017
GOP House tax bill. Good on biz, not good on individual side. But enough for 3% + growth. Corp tax cuts will pay for themselves and then some. Minimal tax on US & foreign profits? Back door BAT? Hidden tax hike on rich? Pass-Through confusion. Maybe a B+ total grade. Must ignore JTC & CBO estimates. Productivity from capital formation is everything for growth & wages. Trump: tax cut passage gives GOP strong economic narrative Nov 2018. Andrew Jackson wins Battle of New Orleans & saves America. Brian Kilmeade new book. Jay Powell is weak Fed head appointment. Phillips curve. Won't rock boat w/ reforms. Trump tax cuts v. Fed wage inflation fears. Shouldn't Hillary get busted for DNC & uranium sale? End diversity lottery now. Jobs decent. Econ rising. No recession. Profits up. Stocks melt-up? Dem budget & taxes insanity. All tax the rich & single-payer health system.
Oct 28, 2017
Fate of the dollar held by next Fed chair. But no one talks about this. King Dollar necessary to bolster tax cuts & maximize growth. Next Fed chair? Trump announces this week. Why would GOP raise tax on millionaires? 401(k)? Salt? Why Dems doubt America's ability to produce & compete? Fast-track tax cuts? CEA/Hassett sees faster growth, more jobs, higher after tax wages for middle class wage earners. Trump gets boost from 3% econ. Biz investment up, anticipating tax cuts. Stocks up, gold down, dollar up. Growth trades. Carly Fiorina honored by The Human Life Review dinner for Great Defender of Life. Crazy story about Free Beacon funding GPS Fusion Trump Russia dossier. What about uranium deal? Mueller's first charge filed.
Oct 14, 2017
GOP still not have 50 Senate votes for budget. Thad Cochrane deathbed. SALT? Corp rate phase-in terrible idea. Don't let process stop good policy. Suspend rules to win. Play hardball like Dems. Growth, not deductions is key point. Gen Kelly: longer Fed process. More interviews. Yellen? Warsh-Taylor ticket? Growth v inflation. End Phillips curve. Chair should favor Trump growth policies. Trump won't certify Iran. Put to Congress. Will Afghan policies work? 16 years. Taliban. What's different now? Trump stops cost-sharing subsidies to insurance co's. Dereg mandates for more choice. Stocks still rising. No recession. No inflation. New profit numbers. If budget not passed, stocks vulnerable. New Fed chair. Insurance & hospitals at risk. Jamie Dimon attacks bitcoin. Nafta? If other countries subsidize, should we? If they're not free market, why should we? We didn't go socialist, or communist. But we won econ war. Imports v. exports.
Oct 7, 2017
Kevin Hassett spanks TPC. corp taxes & wage-earners. Lower marginal rates = growth. Gary Cohn: 3% growth ultimate pay-for? How you gonna get it done? Process must not block growth policies. Hardball. GOP mau-maued on top rate? Class warfare never works. Why penalize success? End war on biz? Salt? Deal? Inheritance? Timing after budget Res? End investment penalties? Earnings stripping? Global minimum tax? Capgains? State of econ? Trump factor? Massive dereg-- Treasury yesterday. Fed orthodoxy: rapid growth causes inflation? High rates choke off Trump boom? Trade worries: NAFTA & Chamber. Car parts. US domestic content. No arbitration. Why are trade deficits bad? Whirlpool v. Samsung? Whirlpool? Anti-dumping? Injurious to US firm? Why are trade deficits bad? Capital inflows? Stocks: Fear Not. 20 x next year's earnings. Rising econ, profits, capex, dollar. Gold falling. Cyclical growth stocks. Neal Freeman: Skirmishes. Bill Buckley changed conservatism? Mayor run in '65. Where is conservative movement now? Trump? Money & Politics: Why can't Dems cut taxes? JFK? Senate budget res get job done?
Sep 30, 2017
Trump galvanizing tax cuts. Incentives matter. Mentioned JFK. Growth cynics. Reconciliation process must not block good policy. Phil Gramm's numbers. Will tax cuts pass? Should they? Temporary or permanent? Senate budget resolution. Tom Price gets the boot. POTUS interviewed Warsh & Powell. Stocks anticipating tax cuts? Gold keeps falling. Real rates going up? Bill O'Reilly's "Killing England."
Sep 23, 2017
Health reform not dead: Murkowski, Paul, Alexander (couldn't make bipartisan deal w/ Patti Murray on insurance cost sharing bailout.) Last chance to reverse O-Care, stop single payer or Bernie's free medicare. GOP messaging on risk pools $150b savings, federal safety net. Premiums falling. More choice, state waivers, private markets, end mandates. Mandate taxes fall heavily on poor. Trump in better shape. Hurricanes, UN, Rocket Man, tax cuts and reform, polls rising. Could end up w/ health & taxes. Questions on G-C: change medicaid funding, block grant redistribution to states (37% of funding go to Cal, NY, Md, Mass.) Pre-existing conditions, enrollment, premiums. Harvard poll says everyone wants tax cuts. Luther Strange v. Roy Moore. Breitbart v. Trump. Trump takes command & UN. Rocket Man. Iran. Sovereignty. Radical Islam Terrorists. Righteousness: moral base of Admin. Tough financial sanctions. China agrees. Toomey-Corker deal: $1.5 tr tax cuts. Accept deficits couple of years. 20-year window. 3% growth. 15% corp rate. Loophole closers. Tuesday announcement from G-6. Ways & Means Sunday-Monday. Stocks up, gold down, commodities up, materials, industrials banks up. Tax cut growth play? Bond rates up. Does anyone care about Fed?
Sep 16, 2017
Trump turnaround makes tax cuts much more likely. 10 weeks. Ryan shifts on revenue neutrality. Mnuchin holding ground on 3% & 15%. Last chance for GOP healthcare reform. Till Sept 30. Ron Johnson bullish. Where is Senate on budget res & reconciliation instructions? Not even Krugman likes Bernie Sanders' single-payer Medicare health. Employer coverage, tax hikes. Milton Friedman: "If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait till you get it for free." Trump's new world: Kelly (Rob Porter) control info. Bi-partisan on immigration & other deals. Positive media coverage. Trump favors optics & positive impressions, not details. Tax the rich. Middle class. Dreamers. But where is Trump tax details? Filling courts w/ conservatives. Fred Barnes & Nick Johnston Axios. Financial markets. Tax cuts haven't seeped in yet. Draft legislation sooner. Buy stocks, sell bonds, buy dollar, sell gold. Profits are mother's milk of stocks. Inflation tax cut. Kotok & Kruszewski. Fed meeting next week: balance sheet, rates, inflation. Is there an immigration deal? Wall? Green cards? 11 million? Students? Sanctuary cities? Deport criminals? Catch & deport? Mark Krikorian & Tamar Jacoby. What does amnesty mean? Money & Politics: Trump turnaround & taxes? Chuck & Nancy? Trump as independent? Ryan turnaround? 3% & 15%? WH & rich people? Bannon bashes Trump on immigration? Single-payer Medicare? Krugman? Moore, Pethokoukis, McIntyre.