Aug 26, 2017
Fed-Ex CEO/founder Fred Smith on 3-4% growth policy. Tax reform, infrastructure, free & fair trade. Steve Liesman/Nick Timirao on Fed: 2-horse race for chair? Other appointees? Cohn on money? Yellen on regs? Get rid of Phillips curve? Gold/commodities flat since 2011. No inflation, while growth improves. Global growth better--IMF. Cohn on moral clarity. Bouroudjian/Kelly on stocks. Gov't shut-down? Debt limit? Commodity rally? Dollar fall? Stocks starting correction? Aerospace-defense? Gen Jack Keane on Afghanistan: Doable? Terrorist-hunting not nation-building? Pakistan? India? Take hand-cuffs off military? N Korea launches 3 duds. Budding Sunni Arab coalition of Saudis, Jordan, UAE, Egypt & Jordanto help w/ Israel-Palestine conflict? Moore/Peek/Nickpour: money & politics? No WH tax plan; leave details to Congress committees. Trump to start barnstorming. From Breitbart: Disciplining the prez. Bannon, Gorka, NSC staffers out. Trump war w/ McConnell, Ryan, McCain, Flake?
Aug 19, 2017
Goodwin/Kissel on Charlottesville & Bannon: collapse of presidency? Legitimacy? Dealing w/ GOP Congress? Isolated? Stable presidency? Need Monday-type speech on race? Should have spoken at funeral of Heather Heyer? Infrastructure drowned out? N Korea concession on Guam drowned out? More changes? Gen Kelly up to task? Bannon interview w/ American Prospect Kuttner straw that broke camel's back? New strategist? Steve Miller? Populism message? Overturn elites? travel ban? Immigration?Paris climate accord? Gasparino/Benko on Bannon, Charlottesville & business: Biz walk away? Stay w/policies on tax, reg, infrastructure, trade? Chamber? BRT? Outlook for tax cuts & reform?Debt ceiling? Budget resolution? Less trade protection? Doesn't Trump need a growth message re-set? Infrastructure message blown away? Role of Gary Cohn? Fed by Sept 15? Stay for tax reform? Wall St/Goldman telling him to leave? Judeo-Christian capitalism? Econ growth most populist action. Sound money & tax cuts. Economic nationalism? Globalism? Revenue neutral v. deficit neutral? 3% growth? MUST PASS TAX CUT. Bannon ouster good for biz? Adami/McDonald: why did stocks fall? Cohn factor? Fed rate hike? Profits strong? Dollar rebound? Most important signals for mkt? Rich Clarida: How's the economy? Atlanta Fed Q3= 3.8%. But manufacturing slow, also biz equipment. Low inflation is a tax cut. Why higher? Fed & rate outlook? What needs to be done? Productivity? Moore/Pethokoukis/McCaughey: money & politics? Blacks prospering under Trump? Business rivals agree on policy (Fed-Ex Fred Smith & UPS David Abney). Bi-partisanship? Besides statues, what is Dem policy?
Aug 12, 2017
Amb. John Bolton on N Korea et al. Trump fire & fury; military solutions locked & loaded; big consequences if Guam; could be Venezuela too. Isn't Trump playing his cards exactly right? Mattis talks military solution, but diplomacy first. Harder sanctions on China banks, energy exports etc. Beefing up US missile systems. Reagan: Evil Empire; not contain but overthrow Soviet communism; 10 seconds to bomb Russia. He used major econ sanctions on Sovs. But his SDI system run down by Clinton/Gingrich, papa Bush, Obama & W. We can hit small number of missiles, but not all. Would we ever hit N Korea pre-processing & launch systems? Mattis: If they hit Guam, would lead to end of regime & destruction of its people." From Clinton on, we appeased: lite water nuclear reactors & fuel oil. N Korea back to plutonium by 2002. Gasparino, Tamney & Trennert: Tax reform outlook (Brady dinner). Rates, depreciation, standard deduction, core biz gets full break, 20 year buildings less. CBO: drain the swamp. Index capgains. Trump factor on stocks & econ. Where is McConnell & Senate? Trump right to chide him. 29m small biz helped by tax cuts & frozen or withdrawal of 860 pending regs.Weak dollar doesn't make a strong economy. Phillips curve dead. Fed must change. Kevin O'Leary & Mike Ozanian talk stocks. N Korea impact? Profits? Low inflation tax cut. No spiking bond rates? Buy after bad week? Longer-term? Middle class benefits from stock bull. Fav sectors? Brian Domitrovic & LK talk about new paperback edition of JFK & Reagan Revolution.JFK surpassing Legacy: Growth is everything. Solves nearly all problems. JFK & RR turned back on FDR New Deal. No class warfare. Trump in their tradition. Dems today erased JFK legacy. No growth, just gov't redistribution. Moore, Peth, McIntyre: No Trump effect on stocks & econ? Confidence? Regs? Milton Friedman killing death tax? Retroactive tax cuts? Senate dead? Brady sees whole package. WH has fall-back plan B. Trump's immigration is popular.
Aug 5, 2017
Good jobs report. Wage income up. Employment rate up.Tax cuts coming. Trump channeling JFK-Reagan growth. Middle class benefits from stock rally. End war on biz, success, fossil fuel. The myth of Trump's do-nothing presidency: massive regulatory rollback. Greg Ip. Maine's 2 senators let us down: Gov Paul LePage blasts them. Medicaid. Tax cuts (not Kansas). Trump outlook. DC policy up-date: Valliere & Gabriel. Insurance bailout. Tax cut schedule. Mueller's grand jury. Gen John Kelly. Trade policy threats. Stock rally: Kilburg & Munson. Jobs. Fed? Commodities/dollar? Trump rally? Immigration: Krikorian. Merit, not family-based. Great start. Emily Lazarus. Too few legals? Money & Politics: Francis, Moore, McIntyre. Trump v. GOP? Trump base holding up? Dem bi-partisanship? GOP more united on taxes? Ryan CBO green-eye-shade? Trump stocks? Trump jobs? Gen Kelly rally?
Jul 29, 2017
Cong. Mark Meadows: General Kelly in, Priebus out. Will other shoes fall? Bannon, Sessions, Mueller. Trump used Scaramucci rant attack to oust Priebus. Targeting jobs and downplaying CBO. Will there be a GOP health bill? Was he satisfied with the joint statement on taxes from Senate/House and WH. Investigate Loretta Lynch/Comey? Alan Reynolds: what should the tax cut look like? What will it look like? Can we get 3 percent growth? Deficit neutral vs. revenue neutral? What shape is the economy in? Does health bill collapse damage GOP tax effort? GDP: 2% growth, 1.5% inflation, what does that mean? Stocks with Jon Najarian and Michael Cuggino: Dow posts record close as Wall Street shakes off Amazon’s fall. No BAT tax, good for retailers. Fed? Dollar? Copper, China? Kilmeade/Nikpour: is the White House staff unraveling? Whose neck gets chopped off next? Using Scaramucci as a messenger? Sessions/Mueller/Bannon? Never Trump Republicans say POTUS is an authoritarian undermining democracy because he fired Comey. Money/Politics: is Paul Ryan’s green eyeshade CBO devotion going to derail tax cuts? Is Plan B — 3 Easy Pieces still in play? POTUS put Gary Cohn on the list for Fed chair (per WSJ). Next steps for GOP healthcare. Greg Ip’s column on Trump deregulation.
Jul 22, 2017
Newt Gingrich: :Understanding Trump. Plus deficit neutral tax cuts. GOP senators betray voters who sent them to DC to kill OB-Care. Changes in WH: Spicer resigns, Scaramucci & Sara Huckabee Sanders. How to solve healthcare: Reagan's half loaf. But what about medicaid disaster? What's holding up global stocks? Bubble? Dollar weak or strong? Profits beat? Jeb Henserling wants financial choice, end Dodd-Frank. Distinguished academics tout 3% growth potential. Trump wants 15% corp tax, not fake news 25%. Ryan becoming problem. BAT still alive. I give Trump B grade first 6 months. W/ tax cuts, an A. Trump handling NAFTA exactly right. Pray for John McCain. Joe Rago passing a tragedy.
Jul 15, 2017
45 minutes of Art Laffer & Steve Forbes: CBO v. Trump-Mulvaney on 3% growth budget. Is Senate health bill worth supporting? Investment tax stays in? Biz won't pull investment trigger until biz tax cuts? Trade war threats? Dollar policy? Poor econ numbers? Fed? Who should be next Fed chair? Jason Riley: False Black Power. Political, but not econ gains. Better 50 years ago? Doug Schoen: America in the Age of Trump. But what's Dem message besides hating Trump & Russian collusion? Econ down and stocks are up? Profits? Banks? Fed should restrain its restraint? No inflation. At best 2% growth. Probably 1.5% inflation. Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.4%. Risk of recession? Money Politics: Ted Cruz off-ramp? Insurers oppose. Pence/Mulvaney working the Hill. Maganomics from Mulvaney. Budget balance at 3% growth. Fed chief? Trade threat? Jamie Dimon rant. Healthcare tax on investment stays in. Tax cuts/reform coming even w/out health deal?
Jul 8, 2017
Trump has Putin over a barrel. Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working at longer hours not inflationary. Get able-bodied people off the couch. OB-Care lost 250K jobs per year; 2.5m over 10. 49ers & 29ers. War on biz & fossil fuels over. Regs rolled back. Waiting for 3 Easy Pieces tax cut. McConnell says may not be able to repeal OB-Care. Cruz amendment? Big 6 on tax reform? No Aug recess. Reconcile biz tax cuts w/ health package? 57 legislative calendar days thru year end. Trump seems militant on trade protection. 232 all wrong. China 2.9% steel imports. Canada #1. Europe retaliate? China & N Korea? Why no currency deal? Better than trade protectionism. Will US intercept N Korea missiles in flight? On ground before launch? More defense spending on triad? Reagan vision. Believe Putin on Syria? Believe China econ sanctions? Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working not inflationary. No market based inflation signals. M2 & Base way down. Defense stocks a good play w/ N Korea & elsewhere? Stay long stocks? Blue state budget breakdowns. Tax hikes make it worse. Illinois, CT, NJ. Tax cut states doing well. Florida magnet. Bannon raising top tax-rate? Biz taxes more important. Across-the board. Lower rate & broader base.