Jul 15, 2017
45 minutes of Art Laffer & Steve Forbes: CBO v. Trump-Mulvaney on 3% growth budget. Is Senate health bill worth supporting? Investment tax stays in? Biz won't pull investment trigger until biz tax cuts? Trade war threats? Dollar policy? Poor econ numbers? Fed? Who should be next Fed chair? Jason Riley: False Black Power. Political, but not econ gains. Better 50 years ago? Doug Schoen: America in the Age of Trump. But what's Dem message besides hating Trump & Russian collusion? Econ down and stocks are up? Profits? Banks? Fed should restrain its restraint? No inflation. At best 2% growth. Probably 1.5% inflation. Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.4%. Risk of recession? Money Politics: Ted Cruz off-ramp? Insurers oppose. Pence/Mulvaney working the Hill. Maganomics from Mulvaney. Budget balance at 3% growth. Fed chief? Trade threat? Jamie Dimon rant. Healthcare tax on investment stays in. Tax cuts/reform coming even w/out health deal?
Jul 8, 2017
Trump has Putin over a barrel. Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working at longer hours not inflationary. Get able-bodied people off the couch. OB-Care lost 250K jobs per year; 2.5m over 10. 49ers & 29ers. War on biz & fossil fuels over. Regs rolled back. Waiting for 3 Easy Pieces tax cut. McConnell says may not be able to repeal OB-Care. Cruz amendment? Big 6 on tax reform? No Aug recess. Reconcile biz tax cuts w/ health package? 57 legislative calendar days thru year end. Trump seems militant on trade protection. 232 all wrong. China 2.9% steel imports. Canada #1. Europe retaliate? China & N Korea? Why no currency deal? Better than trade protectionism. Will US intercept N Korea missiles in flight? On ground before launch? More defense spending on triad? Reagan vision. Believe Putin on Syria? Believe China econ sanctions? Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working not inflationary. No market based inflation signals. M2 & Base way down. Defense stocks a good play w/ N Korea & elsewhere? Stay long stocks? Blue state budget breakdowns. Tax hikes make it worse. Illinois, CT, NJ. Tax cut states doing well. Florida magnet. Bannon raising top tax-rate? Biz taxes more important. Across-the board. Lower rate & broader base.
Jul 1, 2017
Health deal? GOP wusses (taxes, spending). Polls are killing GOP. Public not persuaded lower premiums (ending mandates). Repeal only? FDA good on prices & generics. Scott Gottlieb. But prior condition, community rating? Just guarantee it. Tax credits more toward lower end. Medicaid/GOP. David Hoppe & John McLaughlin. Is manufacturing really that important? Tech, services, robots? Mark Mills says yes. Do we need steel protection? Is econ slumping again ? Brian Wesbury. Fed restrain its restraint? Stocks had huge first half. Continue? Profits? Rate outlook? End of FANG? Banks? Europe & overseas? Back-up in yields? Inflation outlook falling? Dollar falling?Trade war? BK Brian Kelly & Mike Ozanian. Optimist Scott Rasmussen believes we can beat elites & regulatory state. Community & culture? New spiritual awakening? Money & Politics A-Team? Trade war over steel? Trump wins on energy!! Taxes nowhere? Meetings & listening? Trump should tweet agenda, not animosities. But he has right to fight back. Deficit neutral tax plan from Newt. Not revenue neutral. Asset sales. Steve Moore, Jimmy P, John McIntyre.
Jun 24, 2017
Senate healthcare debate. People sold on lower premiums? Tax credits? Essential benefits? Medicaid? Prior conditions? Rand Paul-Mike Lee-Ron Johnson-Ted Cruz-Dean Heller. GOP is mean & death party! GA-6 a near-death experience for Dems. Trump referendum! What do Dems stand for? Universal child care tax credits? Universal income? Hate biz? Hate fossil fuel? Tax rich? Sanders/Warren/Pelosi. GOP polling on economy? Urgent push for tax cuts? Cancel August recess vaca? Made case for tax cuts & jobs & wages? Stocks: Should Fed pause on rate hikes & balance sheet? Where's inflation? Energy crash? $25 bbl Chevron? Potus giving Chiefs decision-making. But where's end game? Money & Politics: Are Potus & Congress making the sale on tax cuts, health premiums, regs, infrastructure?
Jun 17, 2017
Steve Scalise, Nancy Pelosi, & a return to Civility. 3 Easy Pieces: biz tax cut attached to health reconciliation. If not. no summer (recess) vacation. Trump: no charge on Russian collusion. So how can you obstruct something that doesn't exist. Attack Mueller? Tweets? Leave to defense team? Off front pages, better chance to get growth policy done. Jeff Sessions: 100 ambassadors at Mayflower reception! Sr. Armed Service Comm. Trump rolls back Obama Cuba policy. Policy substance or politics? Hurt Cuban entrepreneurs? Travel, transactions, dollars, human rights. Venezuela? Where else Cuban army in Western Hemisphere? Steve Moore on Father's Day. Fed tightening too fast? Softening econ, inflation, rates, commodities.Real wages have gone nowhere. They need tax cuts to raise real rates. Gary Cohn in charge of Fed chair search. What does he believe? Biz expensing cheaper? 25 year window. 3% growth. CT story a national story? Econ polls for Trump?
Jun 10, 2017
3 Easy Pieces: GOP must get biz tax cuts attached to health reconciliation to get job done. No summer recess until this happens. Mark Meadows of Freedom Caucus. Make reconciliation a GOP weapon, not an obstacle. Down w/ CBO. Up w/ Mulvaney & Mnuchin. 3% growth budget. Final deal on Repeal & Replace? Trump speeches from Oval Office. Comey hearing didn't live up to its notices. Trump stocks up 2.5%. Trump vindicated on Russia & obstruct justice. Jared Kushner hear about nothing. Only thing Comey didn't leak was Trump not in Russian probe. Trump offers 100% lie detector. Why not let his defense lawyers handle everthing & stay focused on agenda? Stocks too complacent? Political risk? Brexit? Macron? Tax cuts? Why should Fed tighten after June? Inflation down. Commodities & oil. Theresa May Tories clobbered. Brexit? Terror attacks? Squishy policies? Will she be replaced? Minority majority. Money & Politics: Infrastucture. 3 easy pieces. Reconciliation. Overthrow CBO. Drain the swamp.
Jun 3, 2017
Adieu to Paris. Trump totally right. Would any other GOP prez have done it? Trump most conservative since Reagan. Media endorsements. Econ growth. Climate change models & causes still unknown. Trump concerned about climate, but bad deal. Nuclear power? G-7: no talk of stable money & supply-side policies. Softer jobs v. falling unemployment.Bad but not terrible.Wage income proxy still around 2% real, 4% nominal. Participation rates falling. Is ADP a better? Inflation slowing. Commodities flat. Fed tightenings? Stocks rallied on Paris pullout. Biz investment a bit stronger. Interest rates? Eurozone inflation back below 1%.j Melissa Francis new book: "Lessons from the Prairie." Markets & Trump. Elon Musk, Lloyd Blankfein. ExxonMobil. GE all wanted Paris. Mick Mulvaney: time for CBO has come and gone. POTUS: 51 for all Senate votes; get rid of filibuster. Attach tax cuts to healthcare. BAT tax dead. Aetna leaving CT. 1853. David Tepper leaves NJ. 12% of revenues.
May 27, 2017
Dan Clifton & Mike Solon: Trump's new budget: back to Clinton welfare reform; make it pay to work. There are no cuts. Just slower growth. What about tax cuts? Ryan gives up BAT tax? Senate? Detailed plan from WH? Parental leave? Joe Rago & Hadley Heath Manning: Repeal & Replace: when, what, how? Messaging? Risk pools? Premiums? Keep your doctor? GOP promise to fund poor, ill, pre-conditions? Medicaid? Senate: not 50 votes yet. Brian Kelly & Peter Costa: Stocks: domestic profits falling, so are profit margins. Commodities? Bitcoin? Fed rate hikes? Fed shrinks balance sheet: retire reserves. Flat curve? April capex not good. Gen Jack Keane: Trump changes policies in Mid-East. From Iran to Saudis & Israel. Sunni-Arab-Israel NATO? $100b to Saudis. Iran-Hezbolla-Hamas real enemy. What about campaign to destroy ISIS? NATO not taking terrorism seriously. Moore-Pethokoukis-McIntyre: Money Politics: Lawyers stop Trump tweets? Staff shake-up? War Room? Corey Lewandowsky, Dave Bossie, David Urban. How about econ side? Kushner-Russia?
May 20, 2017
Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin leads way for pro-growth tax cuts w/ 3% growth paying for them. Reconciliation very flexible? Don't have to use CBO or JTC estimates. Is Admin coming together w/ House/Senate? Timetable? Year end? Banking reform? "Let this go" is not obstruction of justice. Not crime.Mueller's jurisdiction? Narrower than past. Why didn't Comey report memo to DoJ? How long? Advice to Trump? Confusion: what are they investigating? Sr. WH official person of interest. WH leaks! Nut job. Relieved Trump pressure. Stocks: buy the dip because tax cuts are coming? Profits? Econ outlook? Fed? Amazon near 1,000? 250% S&P is bull mkt not just a rally? Dollar-gold-oil? Dr. Rock Positano: "Dinner w/ DiMaggio: Memories of American Hero" Money & Politics: Can US get back to 3% growth? Most econs say no. But capital formation is key. Outlook for health & tax reform? Pence for Prez?