Apr 1, 2017
Want to raise wages? Cut biz tax rates first. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney on budget, taxes, healthcare. Team Trump not ready for tax reform? Mnuchin v. Cohn? Carbon tax? Gen Jack Keane on Mosul, Raqqa, Sunnis, defense budget. Nothing wrong w/ trade deficit-- flip side of capital inflows. Team Trump never mentions that. Kill border tax before it kills us. BTW, dollar will fall, not rise. Foreign imports subject to US state & local sales taxes. 6.5% average Big states up to 8-10%. Why is POTUS attacking conservative Freedom Caucus? He's gonna need them down the road. Reagan Rising: 1976-1980 wilderness years. Craig Shirley. Are core profits slumping? Problem for stocks? Trump trade faltering?
Mar 25, 2017
GOP missed great opportunity to repeal & replace OB-Care. Limit gov't. end entitlement. Reagan 70% rule? Get to Senate, then conference, then reconciliation. Plenty of blame to spread around. Ryan never worked w/ Freedom Caucus for changes. Done by Trump-- yeoman's work. How could Ryan not understand reconciliation rules stretched to regs? No one talked to parliamentarian until Sen Mike Lee! Essential benefits? Guaranteed issue for sick. Tax credits? Freedom Caucus could have made Reagan-type deal. Missed opportunity for tax repeal. Especially capgains = 1000-1500 on Dow. Help econ & stocks. Is it dead? Or just a battle to win long war? Ryan revolt? Meadows, Jordan, Blackburn? Shake-up in WH? Has Ryan changed? Supply-side to root canal? But, now tax reform could come 4-5 months earlier. Get rid of BAT. Work reconciliation. Include Freedom Caucus. Corp tax cut helps middle class wage-earners the most. Should have been done first. Retroactive Jan 2017? Stocks worst week since October. Trump worries about tax reform & reg rollback? Worldwide mfging getting better? Profits? !% RGDP Q1? Low revenues & NGDP? Change strategy? Trade protectionism hurts consumers most. Insourcing creates good-paying jobs. Infrastructure? Security: wall, refugees, destroy ISIS. People want peace & prosperity.
Mar 18, 2017
AHCA: will it make it? Deals? Amendments? Reagan would have made deal for 70%. Trump needs W. Why couldn't he do taxes first? Budget savings? Parliamentarian? Still technically graft on to health reconciliation. AHCA: Is medicaid answer for uninsured? How do risk pools work? Tax credits? Insurance rules? 30%? Insurance mandates? Guarantee issue? Essential benefits? 2nd & 3rd buckets? But mandates end, taxes repealed, gov't smaller, pro-growth, pro-healthcare. CBO scorecard? Trump budget dead on arrival? Programs don't work. Meals on wheels. Community Development Block Grants. EPA. Foreign aid. Big defense $54b. Offsets for 2018, start in 2017. Art Laffer: How's Trump outlook & performance? Protection, BAT, Taxes, Regs, energy etc. Econ outlook for 2017-18? Rates? Stocks? Assistant OMB director! Trump optimism? Animal spirits? Fed? Michael Savage: Trump's War: His Battle for America. Populism? Globalism? Protectionism? Wire-tapping? Merkel-Trump meeting? Mnuchin tell Schauble no trade war & strong dollar. Stocks flat. Fed rate hike. Jamie Dimon touts repatriation. Q4 profits fell. Atlanta Fed GDPNow 0.9% Q1. Commodities & inflation.
Mar 11, 2017
Tax reform should come first. Moore, Laffer, Forbes, me. Don't need revenue neutral. Shift tax credits & std deduction. Potus needs W's. Higher capgains, lower revenues. Graft on to reconciliation. Pro-growth. AHCA: more to low end, less to hi end. Pay sick directly w/ vouchers.Huge tax cut. Good shouldn't be enemy of perfect. GOP always has tax credits. Level biz & indiv. Get rid of mandates. How can conservatives fix 1st draft. Good but not great jobs. Fed rate hike. For inflation, non-wage commodities, mkt price indicators. '85-2000. Wayne Angell. Steve Forbes on trade, BAT, tax reform, econ, interest rates. White House civil war on trade. Stocks over-valued? Q4 domestic profits fell. Delayed tax reform.
Mar 4, 2017
Trump's speech optimistic & transformational. Civility, bi-partisan, unity. National confidence. Nick Eberstadt: "Men w/out Work: America's Invisible Crisis." Our miserable 21st century. David Smick: "There's Plenty of Hope for Tax Reform." As Trump unmuzzles econ, rosy scenario will become econ reality. Mark Krikorian: Kinder, softer Trump immigration policy? Avik Roy: ACA reform a tax cut in reconciliation? Biz tax reform also? Is Medicare really going broke? Refundable tax credits a new entitlement? Trump hasn't yet made decision on BAT. WH battle. So many contradictions. Hi dollar hurts exports. Tax imports w/ consumer price hikes will weaken growth; $1.1 TR pay-for never happen. Why not 3-4% growth? Policies affect productivity & work effort. Yellen signals rate hike. 35%- 90% w/ no new numbers! Commodity price rule. Taylor rule. Non-labor inflation model. Trump rally still booming. Profits rising. Better numbers PMI globally. Tech bubble?
Feb 25, 2017
What should Trump say to joint session of Congress? If Trump unmuzzles econ, then rosy scenario will become econ reality. Why didn't econs attack Obama's 4% RGDP. Trump must enact biz tax cuts first to trigger growth. OB-Care a tax (Judge Roberts). Put them together in 2017 budget reconciliation. Middle class benefit. Is Boehner correct that GOP has no OB-Care replacement? Medicare not going bust? Mnuchin suggests no collision between Trump & Yellen. Also no quick action on China yuan manipulation & trade. State of border tax? Why is Trump attacking foreign investments in US? Are trade deficits bad? What does economic nationalism mean? Citizens of world? Davos-EU? Multinationals? Trump bull market continues? Are profits flattening again? Bitcoin role?
Feb 18, 2017
Biz tax cut must come first. Regular order or reconciliation. Could put in same bill w/ ACA repeal (more tax cuts). Econ #1. Needs early W to show strength. Reagan example. Waiting to year end postpones econ & stocks. Early win is crucial. Trump presser played differently w/ supporters. Hinged, not unhinged. Confront media. Good messaging on taxes, ACA, reg rollback, Goresuch, intel leaks, no Trump message w/ Russia, border security, refugee moratorium, pipelines. Florida rally. Is border adjustable tax BAT dead? GOP plan B? US state sales tax & federal excise taxes. Trump econ growth forecast rosier than most? Currency manipulation is real problem, esp for global free trade. Judy Shelton. Why is Trump attacking foreign investment? Real story behind intel leaks? New NSC chief? Military strike on ISIS-Raqqa-Mosul? Is Yellen moving toward rules-based monetary policy? Is US & global growth picking up? Stocks keep rolling. Profits rising. Inflation rising? Some stock market advice for our billionaire prez.
Feb 11, 2017
Sen David Perdue (R, Ga) opposed to border adjustment tax (BAT). Trump new exec order to protect national security w/ refugee moratorium? Better relations w/ Japan: Trump/Abe positive press conference. Golf diplomacy at Mara Lago. Trump gets 3 new picks for Fed, w/ 2 more next year. Easy or tight policy? Dollar? KingDollar & tax cuts = growth. New Trump tax reform developed by Gary Cohn. What's it mean? Alan Reynolds: do trade deficits matter? Mexico? China? Down w/ BAT. CEA downgraded out of cabinet. Will there be anyone? Who advises Trump on contradictory macro outlook? Roger Stone: "The Making of the President 2016: How Trump Orchestrated a Revolution." Better profits and Trump tax cuts drive stocks higher.
Feb 4, 2017
Populism from Trump & Andrew Jackson: what's it mean? Nationalism? Historian HW Brands "The Life and Times of Andrew Jackson." SCOTUS Neil Gorsuch: perfect candidate. Against deference to regulatory agencies. Iranian sanctions for illegal ballistic missile tests. Decent jobs report. Fed rate hike? Doubtful. Trump meets biz-CEOs : Tax reform soon. ACA sooner. Clarify refugee terrorist moratorium. Dodd-Frank too. Ways & Means chair Kevin Brady on taxes & ACA & timing. Repeal all ACA tax hikes. 25% dollar rise? Dow 20,000 back. Profits? Trump? Trump & Navarro want cheaper dollar. Blame Germany. Won't affect trade deficits. If Trump growth policies go through, dollar higher & trade gap wider. Huge capital inflows.
Jan 28, 2017
To speed growth, cut taxes now. Kudlow-Moore WSJ. Bi-partisan? Regular order? GOP ACA plan: Cong Diane Black, interim House Budget chair. Reconciliation? War against Mexico? Wall? 20% BAT? Whole thing giving me headache. Mary Anastasia O'Grady. Pena Nieto. Go after China, not Mexico. Eradicate ISIS? Destroy Raqqua? Gen Jack Keane. Great week for Trump. Keeping promises. Big energy. Pipelines, ACA, vetting refugee (only those who support and love America), rebuild armed services, tax reform, dereg. Optimism. Think big, dream bigger. Pro-life rally w/ Pence & Kellyanne. Miami no longer sanctuary city. Catch and deport. Criminal illegals. Chicago?