Jan 21, 2017
Special show devoted to Trump inaugural. Did speech work? Nationalism, globalism. protectionism, populism. Economic growth? Tax reform? Dollar? Civility? Bi-partisanship? JFK-Reagan influence? Attack on both parties in Congress. No reach-out to presidents (small to Obama), though he did praise Hillary at lunch. Good optimism at end. Financial markets response and outlook?
Jan 14, 2017
GOP agenda: Jeb Hersarling on ACA, tax, Dodd-Frank, monetary reform. Dave Smick: Main Street capitalism can grow our econom Is Trump rally over? Did Trump come out ahead in his press conference? Steve Forbes leading charge against border tax. Worried about yax reform.
Jan 7, 2017
Steve Forbes: the new world according to Steve Forbes. Trump, taxes, trade, regs, money. Econ & interest outlook. 100-year bonds. Repeal & replace OB-Care? 1st legislation/budget res & reconciliation. Plan? Phase-in? Is Medicare going bankrupt? Protect sick? Biz tax reform first? Combine w/ OB-Care? Sen Chuck Schumer poisoning political water: confirmations, healthcare, judges, taxes. Is that change election? Dem message lost. No bipartisanship? Civility? US-Mexican border wall? Border Adjustible tax plan? Jobs: slower growth, faster wages. Fed tightening? Productivity, labor force? Take muzzle off econ growth. 2.9% Q4 RGDP Atlanta Fed. Employment/population ration low. Full employment? Late-cycle slowdown? Recession? Stocks up. Is profits recession over?
Dec 31, 2016
Gen Jack Keane: What is going on w/ Russia? Obama too little too late? Throw out diplomats? Sanctions? Covert ops? Hacking election? Trump response? Putin playing nice w/ Trump? Syria deal w/out US? Obama doing everything to make it hard for Trump? Russia. Israel. Off-shore oil drilling. He could have beaten Trump. Will Dems poison political water at every turn? Help or hurt them? Trump transition? Taxes, tariffs? Which is first: ACA ot tax reform? China trade war? Integrated N. American energy keeps NAFTA alive. 2017 stocks as good as 2016? 20% profits rise? Trump rally continues? Israel betrayal by Obama? There is no legal Palestine state, so 2-state strategy can't work. Trump response to UN?
Dec 24, 2016
Trump transition transcendent, but econ first priority. End of war on biz. Reward success. Successful biz cabinet is right. Wish we could have both ACA and tax reform in single budget reconciliation. Otherwise 2017 econ will stall. Fiscal outlook? End QE? Obama nuts: Vote against Israel in UN? Trump right: Upgrade our nukes. Peace through strength. Dems will poison all political waters. Terrible strategy. Obama/Hillary all over again. New message? Bi-partisanship? JFK/Reagan. Getting back to work. Working-class Americans have duties as well. Michael Strain & Heather McDonald. Right way to do infrastructure: Steve Moore. Energy holds N. America together. Cannot end NAFTA. Will stocks cross 20,0000?
Dec 17, 2016
Russian hacking impact on election? Doubtful it mattered. Obama retaliation? Of course they meddle. Pentagon wants China to return intercepted drone. Broke international law. China arming South China Sea. Trade & security confrontation. Two budget reconciliation bills? ACA repeal first? Tax reform second? Econ & political damage? Postpone activity? Slow 2017? Mid-term election losses for GOP? Reince Priebus outlines first 9-month agenda: ACA repeal, tax reform, SCOTUS, trade. First year crucial. Yellen criticizes Trump's fiscal plan. Confused between supply & demand. More militant Fed? Like Dec 2015. Fed presidents more hawkish. But Fed econ forecast not changed. Dollar too strong? Fed right to follow market rates higher? Stocks still below 20,000. Mediocre econ numbers.
Dec 10, 2016
Trump still rolling. Getting things done. Approval up. Working class appeal. Monica Crowley & Michael Goodwin. GOP as workers party? Why not successful people in cabinet? Ross, Mnuchin, Andy Puzder, Linda McMahon. End war on business. Ignore tax the rich from Dem left. Big shake-up at energy dept (Gov Perry?) and EPA-Pruit. Nothing for Rudy? Alan Mulally? Rex Tillerson? Bob Corker? Romney? Petraeus? GOP faces dilemma on timing of OB-Care replacement. Tax reform first? What is replacement? Avik Roy & Brian Blase. 100 year bonds? Is China a currency manipulator? Trump strategy? Trade war? Japan Softbank investment? 35% tariff? ATT Time-Warner: too much concentration of power? Pipes & content. Google & Facebook replaces media? Trump stock market rally! Go on for years, w/ corrections? Rate hikes?
Dec 3, 2016
Carrier deal in Indiana: good or bad? New sheriff in town? Trade policy to help workers: Ed Conard Everyone wins w/ Trump's across-the-board tax cuts. 78% go through biz. Top 1% earns 19% of income but pays 38% of taxes. Why punish success? Pence promises ambitious agenda. End ACA, immigration, SCOTUS appointment, tax reform, military build-up. Wm F Buckley Jr best eulogies: "A Torch Kept Lit" by James Rosen. Jobs report OK. Fed hikes in December. Trump appoints 5 Fed governors: monetary rule? Richard Clarida weighs in. Stocks slip. Bond rates rise. Profits better. Trump growth vision. Everything changes?
Nov 26, 2016
Larry's Guests and Topics: Gen. Jack Keane: Trump's national security challenges. Generals at NSC, DoD, State? Lt Gen Michael Flynn, Gen James Mattis, Gen David Petraeus. Russia, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS, China, N. Korea. Dana Petrino: "Let me tell you about Jasper: How My Best Dog Became America's Dog." Trump press sec and communications director? Kellyanne Conway & Sean Spicer. Jason Miller? Trump's stock market growth rally: Real rates, Real dollar, Real GDP all up, along w/ stocks. Profits? Econ stronger or weaker? Interest rates & multiples? Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher: Trump will have 5 appointments. Reform Fed? Dec target rate hike? Follow rates higher in stronger economy?
Nov 19, 2016
Things already getting better: stocks, Trump unity (Ryan, Schumer, Romney), cabinet picks, calm Trump, consumer confidence way up, econ confidence way up WAPO: 59% confident econ will improve under Trump, 52% confident higher living standards. Gallup econ confidence index soared 13 points last week. End war on biz & capital. End war on energy. Pence replaces Christie in Transition Comm. Cabinet picks: what have we learned? Jeff Sessions A-G; Mike Flynn NSC; Mike Pompeo CIA. Priebus & Bannon. Steve Bannon predicts "entirely new political movement." ADC backs off bigotry charge. Kevin Brady wants deficit-neutral tax reform. Trump impact on stocks & bonds & dollar: Jason Trennert. Buy stocks, sell bonds? Growth is coming. Trump is under-owned. Fed rate hike in December? Certain. Follow long rates higher. 70% long rate rise from real rate ( tax cuts increase capital returns). Trump could appoint 5 Fed governors!! Remake board. Melanie Kirkpatrick on real meaning of Thanksgiving. This year a good one? Trump on bank reform? Wall Street or regulation?