Mar 4, 2017
Trump's speech optimistic & transformational. Civility, bi-partisan, unity. National confidence. Nick Eberstadt: "Men w/out Work: America's Invisible Crisis." Our miserable 21st century. David Smick: "There's Plenty of Hope for Tax Reform." As Trump unmuzzles econ, rosy scenario will become econ reality. Mark Krikorian: Kinder, softer Trump immigration policy? Avik Roy: ACA reform a tax cut in reconciliation? Biz tax reform also? Is Medicare really going broke? Refundable tax credits a new entitlement? Trump hasn't yet made decision on BAT. WH battle. So many contradictions. Hi dollar hurts exports. Tax imports w/ consumer price hikes will weaken growth; $1.1 TR pay-for never happen. Why not 3-4% growth? Policies affect productivity & work effort. Yellen signals rate hike. 35%- 90% w/ no new numbers! Commodity price rule. Taylor rule. Non-labor inflation model. Trump rally still booming. Profits rising. Better numbers PMI globally. Tech bubble?
Feb 25, 2017
What should Trump say to joint session of Congress? If Trump unmuzzles econ, then rosy scenario will become econ reality. Why didn't econs attack Obama's 4% RGDP. Trump must enact biz tax cuts first to trigger growth. OB-Care a tax (Judge Roberts). Put them together in 2017 budget reconciliation. Middle class benefit. Is Boehner correct that GOP has no OB-Care replacement? Medicare not going bust? Mnuchin suggests no collision between Trump & Yellen. Also no quick action on China yuan manipulation & trade. State of border tax? Why is Trump attacking foreign investments in US? Are trade deficits bad? What does economic nationalism mean? Citizens of world? Davos-EU? Multinationals? Trump bull market continues? Are profits flattening again? Bitcoin role?
Feb 18, 2017
Biz tax cut must come first. Regular order or reconciliation. Could put in same bill w/ ACA repeal (more tax cuts). Econ #1. Needs early W to show strength. Reagan example. Waiting to year end postpones econ & stocks. Early win is crucial. Trump presser played differently w/ supporters. Hinged, not unhinged. Confront media. Good messaging on taxes, ACA, reg rollback, Goresuch, intel leaks, no Trump message w/ Russia, border security, refugee moratorium, pipelines. Florida rally. Is border adjustable tax BAT dead? GOP plan B? US state sales tax & federal excise taxes. Trump econ growth forecast rosier than most? Currency manipulation is real problem, esp for global free trade. Judy Shelton. Why is Trump attacking foreign investment? Real story behind intel leaks? New NSC chief? Military strike on ISIS-Raqqa-Mosul? Is Yellen moving toward rules-based monetary policy? Is US & global growth picking up? Stocks keep rolling. Profits rising. Inflation rising? Some stock market advice for our billionaire prez.
Feb 11, 2017
Sen David Perdue (R, Ga) opposed to border adjustment tax (BAT). Trump new exec order to protect national security w/ refugee moratorium? Better relations w/ Japan: Trump/Abe positive press conference. Golf diplomacy at Mara Lago. Trump gets 3 new picks for Fed, w/ 2 more next year. Easy or tight policy? Dollar? KingDollar & tax cuts = growth. New Trump tax reform developed by Gary Cohn. What's it mean? Alan Reynolds: do trade deficits matter? Mexico? China? Down w/ BAT. CEA downgraded out of cabinet. Will there be anyone? Who advises Trump on contradictory macro outlook? Roger Stone: "The Making of the President 2016: How Trump Orchestrated a Revolution." Better profits and Trump tax cuts drive stocks higher.
Feb 4, 2017
Populism from Trump & Andrew Jackson: what's it mean? Nationalism? Historian HW Brands "The Life and Times of Andrew Jackson." SCOTUS Neil Gorsuch: perfect candidate. Against deference to regulatory agencies. Iranian sanctions for illegal ballistic missile tests. Decent jobs report. Fed rate hike? Doubtful. Trump meets biz-CEOs : Tax reform soon. ACA sooner. Clarify refugee terrorist moratorium. Dodd-Frank too. Ways & Means chair Kevin Brady on taxes & ACA & timing. Repeal all ACA tax hikes. 25% dollar rise? Dow 20,000 back. Profits? Trump? Trump & Navarro want cheaper dollar. Blame Germany. Won't affect trade deficits. If Trump growth policies go through, dollar higher & trade gap wider. Huge capital inflows.
Jan 28, 2017
To speed growth, cut taxes now. Kudlow-Moore WSJ. Bi-partisan? Regular order? GOP ACA plan: Cong Diane Black, interim House Budget chair. Reconciliation? War against Mexico? Wall? 20% BAT? Whole thing giving me headache. Mary Anastasia O'Grady. Pena Nieto. Go after China, not Mexico. Eradicate ISIS? Destroy Raqqua? Gen Jack Keane. Great week for Trump. Keeping promises. Big energy. Pipelines, ACA, vetting refugee (only those who support and love America), rebuild armed services, tax reform, dereg. Optimism. Think big, dream bigger. Pro-life rally w/ Pence & Kellyanne. Miami no longer sanctuary city. Catch and deport. Criminal illegals. Chicago?
Jan 21, 2017
Special show devoted to Trump inaugural. Did speech work? Nationalism, globalism. protectionism, populism. Economic growth? Tax reform? Dollar? Civility? Bi-partisanship? JFK-Reagan influence? Attack on both parties in Congress. No reach-out to presidents (small to Obama), though he did praise Hillary at lunch. Good optimism at end. Financial markets response and outlook?
Jan 14, 2017
GOP agenda: Jeb Hersarling on ACA, tax, Dodd-Frank, monetary reform. Dave Smick: Main Street capitalism can grow our econom Is Trump rally over? Did Trump come out ahead in his press conference? Steve Forbes leading charge against border tax. Worried about yax reform.
Jan 7, 2017
Steve Forbes: the new world according to Steve Forbes. Trump, taxes, trade, regs, money. Econ & interest outlook. 100-year bonds. Repeal & replace OB-Care? 1st legislation/budget res & reconciliation. Plan? Phase-in? Is Medicare going bankrupt? Protect sick? Biz tax reform first? Combine w/ OB-Care? Sen Chuck Schumer poisoning political water: confirmations, healthcare, judges, taxes. Is that change election? Dem message lost. No bipartisanship? Civility? US-Mexican border wall? Border Adjustible tax plan? Jobs: slower growth, faster wages. Fed tightening? Productivity, labor force? Take muzzle off econ growth. 2.9% Q4 RGDP Atlanta Fed. Employment/population ration low. Full employment? Late-cycle slowdown? Recession? Stocks up. Is profits recession over?
Dec 31, 2016
Gen Jack Keane: What is going on w/ Russia? Obama too little too late? Throw out diplomats? Sanctions? Covert ops? Hacking election? Trump response? Putin playing nice w/ Trump? Syria deal w/out US? Obama doing everything to make it hard for Trump? Russia. Israel. Off-shore oil drilling. He could have beaten Trump. Will Dems poison political water at every turn? Help or hurt them? Trump transition? Taxes, tariffs? Which is first: ACA ot tax reform? China trade war? Integrated N. American energy keeps NAFTA alive. 2017 stocks as good as 2016? 20% profits rise? Trump rally continues? Israel betrayal by Obama? There is no legal Palestine state, so 2-state strategy can't work. Trump response to UN?