Sep 10, 2016
JFK and the Reagan Revolution. Would JFK be Republican today? Tax cuts & sound dollar. 15th anniversary of 9/11: we must never forget. Russia-US Syria deal? N. Korea nuke test. Hillary & Trump battle over national security. Affection for Putin? Trump intel briefing shows Obama not following military advice on ISIS. Political generals? Hillary security policy: Take-out ISIS leader. No troops on ground. Trump now hammering Hillary on Clinton cash favors, classified emails. Trump polls rising. Trump reach-out to blacks: School choice, law & order, jobs. False economy? Blame Fed? But it's tax & reg problem. Immigration ranks 6th. Econ #1. Inequality v. Growth. Wealth redistribution? Do trade deficits matter? Big stock sell-off from rate-hike fears. Profits? Why Europe has no tech boom?
Sep 3, 2016
In stagnant economy, Hillary has forgotten JFK. But Trump & GOP continue JFK-Reagan supply-side growth tradition. Soft jobs report, no inflation: Fed will not raise rates in December. The Idle Army: America's Unworking Men. Nicholas Eberstadt AEI Econ mired in business recession. Gross Output (GO) B2B supply chain falling. Did Trump get it right on immigration? No Statue of Liberty or City on a Hill. But nails criminals. Mexico? EU wants to tax Ireland and Apple: $14b. Unaccountable, unelected, lefty bureaucrats destroying Europe. Can Trump win? Closing in polls. Econ growth repetition message. Are stocks over-valued w/ profits y/y down 5 straight quarters?
Aug 27, 2016
Fed Jackson Hole meeting: Our money is a mess. Fed version of Davos, and just as liberal. Probably more harm than good for economy. Monetary natives are restless: From left, Dartmouth's Andrew Levin Fed-Up. Easy money, minority governors, reduce inequality. From right, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh blasts central bank. Veteran WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath blasts models and blames Fed for populism and public disillusionment. Other lib academics want 3-4% inflation that would ruin savers & investors. And conservative John Tamny wants to end Fed. Meanwhile economy 1.2% last 4 quarters in GDP revisions. Profits down y/y 5 straight quarters. Biz investment down again. Productivity down. Need to slash biz taxes across-the-board to revive econ, jobs, wages. Also deregulation. Obama-Care must go. Fed can produce money, but it cannot produce jobs. Need steady, reliable KingDollar to attract investment, raise confidence, keep prices stable. At 3% inflation, money value halves in 23.5 years. At 2% inflation, value halves in 35 years. Why not zero inflation? Ann Coulter book: "In Trump We Trust." But did Trump betray her on immigration? Can Trump still win? Losing in swing states. WSJ reporter Jay Solomon new book: "The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles, Secret Deals That Reshaped Middle East." Supreme Leader Ali Khameini big winner. Why Trump tax plan is recovery winner, but Hillary's a recession loser. Want higher wages? Slash corp taxes. Stocks down on week. Fed? Profits?
Aug 20, 2016
Trump shakes up campaign, message & management. Serious speeches. Humility. Turning point? Why Manafort out? Steve Banner of Breitbart? Kellyanne Conway (best message strategist). Gen. Jack Keane on foreign/military strategies of Trump & Clinton. Did CentCom fudge ISIS analysis? Scott Winship: Inequality a distraction, real issue is growth. Robert Laszewski & Avik Roy: ObamaCare in death spiral, what is to be done? JFK and the Reagan Revolution pre-order. Stocks flat. Numbers better. Fed prez babbling. Hike in Sept?
Aug 13, 2016
Trump tax plan pro-growth winner. But will he sell it? Steve Forbes likes Trump econ plan. Hillary tax plan anti-growth, hi taxes, inequality, fairness. Hillary tax return: Made nearly $240m since leaving White House (dead broke) Did CentCom cook the books on ISIS? Peter Schweizer: Clinton ties to Russia? Other Clinton cash issues? Can Trump recover from big drop in polls? Swing states? Retail sales slowing? Can stocks keep high ground w/ profits and productivity down?
Aug 8, 2016
New post by WABCAM
Jul 30, 2016
Who won battle of conventions? Trump too dark & pessim? Hill & Dems grabbed Reagan high ground of optimism & exceptionalism? FDR/Reagan? Michael Goodwin NY Post: Hill's big speech uninspired Left wish list. Hillary recession? Trump knows you can't tax your way into prosperity. Tax cutters JFK & Reagan huge growth from tax cuts. Real Hillary? Change-Maker? Trustworthy? Really? Clinton Foundation cash linked to Putin & oligarchs. Should Trump have raised Russia & DNC hacking? Clinton campaign too? Polls even up, but only 44%. Meaning? US econ perilously close to recession. Profits & biz investment keep falling. 1.2% RGDP disaster. Might Fed really hike rates in September? Stood pat July. Level Fed & start over! Rules. Currency stability. Small biz, farmers, small banks. Phd models all wrong. Deregulate interest rates. Stanford/Hoover econ John Taylor & Wall St econ John Ryding. Stocks off for the week. What is profits story?
Jul 23, 2016
Did Trump speech get job done? Persuade he can get job done & turn country around? Optimism? Revivalism? Pence speech saved Republican convention. Who is Sen Tim Kaine? Will Elizabeth Warren revolt (like dummy Ted Cruz)? Sen Rob Portman: politics, convention & Comprehensive Addiction & Recovery Act. RNC Convention analysis: Art Laffer, Kellyanne Conway, Jim McLaughlin, Ed Klein, Michael Goodwin. Breibart's Milo Yiannopoulis on GOP break-up, Facebook's liberal bias, why was he thrown out of Twitter? Stocks keep rolling. Peter Costa, Liz Ann Sonders. Fed next week? Money & Politics A-Team: Steve Moore, Jimmy P, John McIntyre
Jul 16, 2016
Gen. Jack Keane: Nice, Turkey. World in chaos? Lawlessness? Religious war? US War Declaration? What is our strategy? Former Sec State George Shultz: No country ever long maintained its military power when its econ foundation faltered. Need message of strength to rest of world. Barbary Pirates-- Tom Jefferson. First defeat of Muslim radicals. 2 homers by Donald Trump: Declaration of War & Mike Pence. Democratic platform sharp left turn. Beyond Obama! Where's Hillary growth package? Hillary blames whites & cops for shootings in St Paul, Baton Rouge, Dallas. Embraces Black Lives Matter. Trump defends cops: I'm candidate of law & order. Tear down the Fed. Start all over. (dereg rates, end interest on excess reserves, rule-based, stable dollar, small biz on Fed, end Phd phony models.) Better econ stats. 3% Q2. But 1.9% y/y. Post Brexit stock melt-up? But will profits sustain it?
Jul 9, 2016
What is wrong w/ America? Shooting after shooting. What should be done? Need new moral movement? Community policing? Training? Can't just blame Obama or a few groups. Bigger problems than that. Is Jim Comey treating Hillary different than ordinary folks? Is Comey decision really a gift for Donald Trump? Killer for Hillary? Trump has good day in DC. Jobs rebound, but trend still slowing. Time for a supply-side solution? Stocks stabilize after Brexit, but Q2 profits begin this week.